Match Info

Super Lig - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Corendon Airlines Park (Antalya)

Referee: Akarsu A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	Antalyaspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	6.25	4	1.49	Watch
	6	4.33	1.49
	5.92	4.18	1.5	Watch
	6.39	4.35	1.53
	6.07	4.32	1.52
	6	3.9	1.5
	6.85	4.12	1.56	Watch
	8.5	4.8	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.5 ↓ (8.5)	4.25 ↓ (4.8)	1.49 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Antalyaspor
14.5%

Draw
22.2%

Fenerbahçe
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11%

19.4%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

18.6%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Antalyaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fenerbahçe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Antalyaspor than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	0%	93.3%

Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Fenerbahçe (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (28 of 30 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Antalyaspor (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Julian (G) 4. Turkmen H. 89. Sari V. (C) 30. Giannetti L. 3. Paal K. 6. Dikmen S. 23. Ceesay J. 11. Ballet S. 26. Storm N. 70. Sinik D. 22. van de Streek S.	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 14. Demir Y. E. 24. Oosterwolde J. 22. Mercan L. 17. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 5. Yuksek I. (C) 21. Asensio M. 26. Cherif S. 9. Akturkoglu K.
Substitutes
7. Balci B. 77. Boli Y. 14. Dzhikiya G. 2. Karakoc S. 90. Kayaarasi K. 10. Omur A. 5. Ozturk B. 88. Saric D. 17. Yesilyurt E. 21. Yigiter A. (G)	70. Aydin O. 3. Brown A. 13. Cetin T. (G) 54. Ekici A. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 18. Muldur M. 20. Musaba A. 45. Nene D. 67. Uregen K.
Coaches
Ugurlu S.	Gole Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Semedo N. ↓, Muldur M. ↑,
28', Giannetti L. ↓, Balci B. ↑,
43', 1 - 0, Mercan L. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 2 - 0, van de Streek S. ⚽, Balci B. (A),
63', 2 - 1, Cherif S. ⚽, Asensio M. (A),
68', Sinik D. ↓, Saric D. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Sari V. (Own goal),
73', Yuksek I. ↓, Fred ↑,
74', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
80', Storm N. ↓, Karakoc S. ↑,
81', van de Streek S. ↓, Omur A. ↑,
87', Muldur M. ↓, Musaba A. ↑,
87', Mercan L. ↓, Brown A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Antalyaspor won 0.

Antalyaspor is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fenerbahçe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Antalyaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Antalyaspor won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 13:36. (average 0.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Antalyaspor won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 1.34 are the expected chance of winning is 69.6%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Antalyaspor
Turkish Super League
22.02.26	Kayserispor - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.02.26	Igdirspor - Antalyaspor	6:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
30.01.26	Antalyaspor - Trabzonspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLLT
- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
Turkish Super League
14.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
09.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Gençlerbirliği	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
28.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Antalyaspor	2:0
02.03.25	Fenerbahçe - Antalyaspor	3:0
29.09.24	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2
03.02.24	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2
17.09.23	Fenerbahçe - Antalyaspor	3:2
30.05.23	Fenerbahçe - Antalyaspor	2:0
03.01.23	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2

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