Match Info

TURKEY: 1. Lig - Round 21

Date: 24 January 2025, Friday

Location: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Umraniyespor		Şanlıurfaspor

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.65	3.6	4.33
	1.72	3.75	4.75
	1.7	3.79	5.2
	1.69	3.66	5.03	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.2
	1.68	3.78	4.78	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.98)	3.67 ↑ (3.43)	4.72 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umraniyespor
54.9%

Draw
25.4%

Şanlıurfaspor
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.9%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.7%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umraniyespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Umraniyespor's performance.

Şanlıurfaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Şanlıurfaspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Umraniyespor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Şanlıurfaspor than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Şanlıurfaspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	17.6%	5.9%

Umraniyespor - Şanlıurfaspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Umraniyespor will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Şanlıurfaspor will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Umraniyespor: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Topaloglu C. (G) 97. Cavare D. 44. Glumac T. 53. Oksuz B. 70. Yildirim O. 8. Goksu S. 6. Dokanovic A. 81. Bulbul A. T. 27. Soukou C. 77. Benny 10. Bardhi J.	35. Tokotaev E. (G) 2. Camoglu B. 77. Acer M. 5. Eren F. 15. Ashkovski S. 23. Ercelik H. 26. Acar H. 82. Begic A. 19. Yardimci N. 99. Gokbayrak A. 32. Ogundu U.
Substitutes
1. Adiyaman U. (G) 23. Apaydin F. 20. Babacan A. 24. Buyuksayar M. A. 19. Celik B. 22. Ekincier B. 5. Hoti E. 18. Karasu M. 99. Yildirim O. (G) 59. Yilmaz Y.	52. Aybasti A. 7. Cetin F. 13. Kalyoncu E. (G) 17. Karadogan J. 90. Menize C. 8. Ofosu R. 20. Sunger A. (G) 11. Yuksel M.
Coaches
Bolukbasi B.	Karafirtinalar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Gokbayrak A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Bardhi J. ⚽, Benny (A),
43', Benny 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Begic A. ↓, Yuksel M. ↑,
58', Ashkovski S. ↓, Ofosu R. ↑,
67', Soukou C. ↓, Hoti E. ↑,
76', Goksu S. ↓, Ekincier B. ↑,
76', Bulbul A. T. ↓, Apaydin F. ↑,
77', Ercelik H. ↓, Menize C. ↑,
85', Yildirim O. ↓, Babacan A. ↑,
90', Gokbayrak A. ↓, Aybasti A. ↑,
90+5', Ofosu R. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Umraniyespor is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Şanlıurfaspor is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Umraniyespor is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Umraniyespor won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Umraniyespor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umraniyespor
Turkish First League
18.01.25	Çorum - Umraniyespor	3:1 ✺
13.01.25	Manisa FK - Umraniyespor	0:3 ✺
05.01.25	Umraniyespor - Erzurumspor	0:0 ✺
23.12.24	Amed SK - Umraniyespor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
18.12.24	Umraniyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTLL
- Şanlıurfaspor
Turkish First League
17.01.25	Şanlıurfaspor - Ankaragücü	0:1 ✺
12.01.25	Erzurumspor - Şanlıurfaspor	0:1 ✺
04.01.25	Şanlıurfaspor - Çorum	0:0 ✺
21.12.24	Manisa FK - Şanlıurfaspor	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Şanlıurfaspor - Pendikspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
18.08.24	Şanlıurfaspor - Umraniyespor	3:1
06.04.24	Umraniyespor - Şanlıurfaspor	0:1
11.11.23	Şanlıurfaspor - Umraniyespor	0:1

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