Match Info

1. Lig - Round 20

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu (Manisa)

Referee: Yilmaz A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Manisa FK		Umraniyespor

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	3.8	Watch
	1.74	3.65	4.08
	1.77	3.87	4.06	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.9
	1.72	3.62	4.16	Watch
	1.72	3.66	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.78)	3.68 ↑ (3.65)	4.03 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manisa FK
52.5%

Draw
24.8%

Umraniyespor
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

24.9%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

24.2%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manisa FK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Umraniyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Manisa FK - Umraniyespor Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Manisa (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Umraniyespor (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manisa FK will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 3 - 60%). Umraniyespor (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karakus V. (G) 45. Karapo A. 4. Herelle C. 27. Gureler Y. 2. Talum Y. 23. Kiprit M. 60. Toure B. (C) 10. Lindseth J. 11. Adekanye B. 9. Diony L. 13. Ibik A.	35. Topaloglu C. (G) 70. Yildirim O. 53. Oksuz B. 44. Glumac T. (C) 75. Kaplan E. 8. Goksu S. 88. Djokanovic A. 10. Bardhi J. 77. Benny 9. Celik B. 11. Ekincier B.
Substitutes
21. Akboga E. 99. Basar M. (G) 22. Bodur S. (G) 77. Can Aslan U. 25. Cissokho M. 24. Dursun Y. 19. Erdem U. 17. Kahraman O. 65. Sen A. 32. Uslu M.	1. Adiyaman U. (G) 5. Aktas K. 20. Babacan A. 81. Bulbul A. T. 17. Hoti E. 14. Kocaturk Y. 12. Kosoko T. 92. Ozdemir T. 30. Sas Y. D. 27. Soukou C.
Coaches
Dalci M.	Albayrak T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kiprit M. ↓, Cissokho M. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Diony L. ⚽, Lindseth J. (A),
63', Ekincier B. ↓, Ozdemir T. ↑,
63', Celik B. ↓, Kosoko T. ↑,
71', Karapo A. 🟨,
71', Goksu S. ↓, Hoti E. ↑,
71', Bardhi J. ↓, Babacan A. ↑,
83', Benny ↓, Soukou C. ↑,
84', Karapo A. ↓, Kahraman O. ↑,
89', Glumac T. 🟨,
90+3', Karakus V. 🟨,
90+5', Adekanye B. ↓, Sen A. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manisa won 2.

Manisa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Umraniyespor's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Manisa is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Umraniyespor: Saitoglu Y. (Suspended)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Manisa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Manisa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Manisa FK	8	2	3	3	12:12	0	9
16	Umraniyespor	8	1	3	4	6:9	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manisa FK
Turkish First League
26.12.25	Sakaryaspor - Manisa FK	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Manisa FK - Keçiörengücü	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Serik Belediyespor - Manisa FK	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Manisa FK - Vanspor	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Pendikspor - Manisa FK	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTWWL
- Umraniyespor
Turkish First League
28.12.25	Keçiörengücü - Umraniyespor	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Umraniyespor - Adana Demirspor	5:0 ✺
14.12.25	Vanspor - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Umraniyespor - Amed SK	3:4 ✺
29.11.25	Sakaryaspor - Umraniyespor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
08.08.25	Umraniyespor - Manisa FK	2:1
10.05.25	Umraniyespor - Manisa FK	0:1
13.01.25	Manisa FK - Umraniyespor	0:3
11.03.24	Manisa FK - Umraniyespor	3:2
22.10.23	Umraniyespor - Manisa FK	3:2
21.02.22	Manisa FK - Umraniyespor	2:1
25.09.21	Umraniyespor - Manisa FK	1:0

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