Match Info

Date: 6 February 2022, Sunday


	União de Santarém		Alverca

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.82
	3.4	3.4	1.92
	3.84	3.51	1.93
	3.7	3.5	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↓ (4)	3.42 ↑ (3.37)	1.87 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
24.5%

Draw
26.7%

Alverca
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

27.4%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

21.7%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with União de Santarém that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alverca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group)).

União de Santarém is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alverca is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Alverca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alverca is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches União de Santarém won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-9.

Including matches at home between the teams União de Santarém won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
29.01.22	Cova De Piedade - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
24.01.22	União de Santarém - Setúbal	4:1 ✺
20.01.22	Setúbal - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
16.01.22	Torreense - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
09.01.22	União de Santarém - Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLLT
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
02.02.22	Amora - Alverca	1:2 ✺
28.01.22	Alverca - Sporting Lisbon B	2:0 ✺
21.01.22	Oliveira Hospital - Alverca	1:2 ✺
18.12.21	Oriental Dragon - Alverca	0:1 ✺
12.12.21	Alverca - Cova De Piedade	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
29.10.21	Alverca - União de Santarém	3:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.05.21	Alverca - União de Santarém	0:0
02.05.21	União de Santarém - Alverca	1:1
31.01.21	União de Santarém - Alverca	3:2
18.10.20	Alverca - União de Santarém	3:0

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