Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 19 May 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	União de Santarém		Setúbal

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.3	3.1	2.95
	2.2	3.33	3.09
	2.2	3.33	3.09
	2.16	3.47	3.03
	2.32	3.1	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.7)	3.24 ↓ (3.29)	2.98 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
40.9%

Draw
28.3%

Setúbal
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

28.1%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in União de Santarém's performance.

Setúbal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Setúbal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with União de Santarém that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Setúbal than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Setúbal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+8', 🟥,

Preview

Recent matches União de Santarém is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Setúbal is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches União de Santarém won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams União de Santarém won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
05.05.24	União de Santarém - Moncarapachense	2:1 ✺
27.04.24	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.04.24	Setúbal - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.04.24	União de Santarém - Vitória de Sernache	3:0 ✺
24.03.24	União de Coimbra - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLWL
- Vitoria Setúbal
Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
05.05.24	Setúbal - SC Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
28.04.24	Moncarapachense - Setúbal	1:2 ✺
21.04.24	Setúbal - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
07.04.24	Elvas - Setúbal	2:1 ✺
24.03.24	Setúbal - Fabril do Barreiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
21.04.24	Setúbal - União de Santarém	2:1
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.22	União de Santarém - Setúbal	4:1
20.01.22	Setúbal - União de Santarém	3:1

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