Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Real Cartagena

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.00
	2.22	3.15	3.00	Watch
	2.23	3.27	3.28
	2.3	3.23	3.09	Watch
	2.30	3.15	3.05
	2.25	3.20	3.20	Watch
	2.18	3.10	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.32)	3.17 ↑ (3.08)	3.08 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
41.2%

Draw
29%

Real Cartagena
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

30.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

29.4%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

The chances for Real Cartagena have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Tasso M. (G) 17. Arrieta G. 7. Blanco R. 22. Giraldo J. 27. Lerma J. 3. Mera D. 10. Mercado J. 6. Ortiz D. 5. Penaloza J. 25. Sagrera W. 16. Surmay O.	1. Montes A. (G) 17. Aleman J. 33. Balanta M. 25. De Las Salas C. 26. Graciano C. 80. Lopez E. 10. Montero F. 14. Pino D. 21. Rodriguez J. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 20. Taffur L.
Substitutes
2. Ballesteros M. 1. Cabezas V. (G) 14. Farias J. 30. Garcia G. 18. Molina F. 19. Mosquera F. 29. Pimienta J. 8. Prado V. 15. Rodriguez R.	99. Castillo D. 6. Escobar A. 18. Gallego J. P. 22. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 9. Manotas M. 27. Melendez A. 28. Paternina C. 13. Rios J. 11. Yanes L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Taffur L. ⚽,
42', Balanta M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Solarte Espana J. A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rios J. ↑,
64', Taffur L. ↓, Castillo D. ↑,
66', Montero F. ↓, Manotas M. ↑,
78', Pino D. 🟨,
82', Lerma J. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
83', Mera D. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
85', Giraldo J. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
85', Mercado J. ↓, Pimienta J. ↑,
87', Molina F. 🟨,
90+1', Arrieta G. ↓, Ballesteros M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Unión Magdalena may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Unión Magdalena is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Unión Magdalena has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:9 (averaging 1.4:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Unión Magdalena against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 8:3 goals (averaging 2:0.8 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19:14	5	15
11	U. Magdalena	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Copa
25.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.09.26	Patriotas - Unión Magdalena	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Real Cundinamarca - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Barranquilla	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLLW
- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
21.09.26	Real Cartagena - Envigado	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Internacional de Palmira - Real Cartagena	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Orsomarso - Real Cartagena	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Real Cartagena - Tigres	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Leones - Real Cartagena	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
12.05.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	3:0
08.05.26	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:1
22.03.26	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:1
25.08.24	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:0
11.03.24	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	2:2
31.08.21	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	1:0
15.02.21	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	2:1

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