Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 20

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Claro Arena (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Flores D. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Universidad Católica		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.50	5.75	Watch
	1.68	3.70	4.80
	1.70	3.55	4.50	Watch
	1.71	3.93	5.37
	1.79	3.55	4.51
	1.66	3.70	5.40
	1.69	3.58	5.88	Watch
	1.62	3.50	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.67)	3.63 ↓ (3.69)	5.15 ↑ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica
55.8%

Draw
25.9%

Ñublense
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

25.2%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

25.7%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Universidad Católica - Ñublense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernedo V. (G) 2. Gonzalez D. 5. Farias A. 19. Ampuero B. 15. Cuevas C. 10. Palavecino M. 20. Valencia J. 8. Zuqui F. 11. Montes C. 9. Zampedri F. (C) 7. Giani J.	1. Perez N. (G) 6. Calderon P. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 16. Sanhueza D. 10. Plaza M. 21. Reyes L. (C) 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 26. Calderon E. 11. Molina Canto L.
Substitutes
6. Arancibia S. 25. Corral D. 22. Gomez M. 14. Martinez J. A. 17. Medel G. 27. Melo D. (G) 3. Mena E. 43. Perez A. 42. Pino N.	5. Campos Mosqueira F. 18. Cespedes D. 8. Graciani G. 20. Jeraldino I. 35. Mansilla C. 25. Munoz H. (G) 7. Ovelar F. 3. Salomon C. 22. Valdes A.
Coaches
Garnero D.	Ribera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Zuqui F. 🟥,
11', Sanhueza D. 🟨,
43', Giani J. 🟨,
45+4', Palavecino M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Sanhueza D. ↓, Graciani G. ↑,
46', Giani J. ↓, Martinez J. A. ↑,
46', Gonzalez D. ↓, Arancibia S. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Calderon E. ⚽, Molina Canto L. (A),
65', Montes C. ↓, Corral D. ↑,
67', Calderon E. ↓, Jeraldino I. ↑,
67', Garnero D. 🟨,
72', Reyes L. 🟨,
74', Perez N. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Zampedri F. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Molina Canto L. ↓, Ovelar F. ↑,
76', Rivera M. ↓, Mansilla C. ↑,
81', Palavecino M. ↓, Medel G. ↑,
81', Plaza M. ↓, Campos Mosqueira F. ↑,
85', Martinez J. A. 🟨,
87', Medel G. 🟨,
88', 1 - 2, Jeraldino I. ⚽, Ovelar F. (A),
90+1', Palavecino M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 2.

Recent performances by Uni Católica have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ñublense is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Uni Católica is seen as the favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	50:33	17	42
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad Católica - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.72%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica
Copa Libertadores
18.08.26	Universidad Católica - Estudiantes La Plata	0:3 ✺
11.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
07.08.26	Universidad Católica - Cobresal	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Deportes Concepción - Universidad Católica	3:0 ✺
25.07.26	Universidad Católica - Deportes La Serena	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWLT
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
16.08.26	Ñublense - Unión La Calera	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	2:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
04.08.26	Ñublense - Rangers de Talca	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
26.07.26	Ñublense - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
12.07.26	OHiggins - Ñublense	2:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Copa de la Liga
10.05.26	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	1:1
25.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:0
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2
09.10.25	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	1:0
08.03.25	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:1
28.07.24	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2
23.02.24	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	0:1

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