Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 16

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas (Chillán)

Referee: Lara J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TNT Sports Premium
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ñublense		Palestino

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.10
	2.22	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.28	3.4	3.51
	2.2	3.2	3.36	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.45
	2.2	3.14	3.34	Watch
	2.15	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.32)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	3.3 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ñublense
42.5%

Draw
29.1%

Palestino
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

29.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.8%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Ñublense - Palestino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez N. (G) 6. Calderon P. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 16. Sanhueza D. 21. Reyes L. (C) 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 10. Plaza M. 8. Graciani G. 11. Molina Canto L.	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 3. Roco E. 28. Zuniga D. 18. Gallegos S. 20. Tapia Paez G. 8. Meza N. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 19. Da Silva N. 27. Munder C.
Substitutes
5. Campos Mosqueira F. 27. Guzman V. 35. Mansilla C. 36. Munoz B. 25. Munoz H. (G) 31. Poblete J. 13. Saavedra D. 3. Salomon C. 22. Valdes A.	14. Abrigo J. 30. Alegria I. 11. Benitez J. 16. Bizama J. 12. Canto R. (G) 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 17. Eggel M. 9. Fernandez R. 24. Salgado D.
Coaches
Ribera J.	Farre G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', Roco E. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Valencia S. ⚽, Plaza M. (A),
43', Da Silva N. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Molina Canto L. ⚽, Plaza M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carrasco B. ↓, Eggel M. ↑,
46', Garguez Gomez I. A. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
61', Eggel M. 🟨,
64', Benitez J. 🟨,
64', Meza N. ↓, Alegria I. ↑,
65', Tapia Paez G. ↓, Abrigo J. ↑,
65', Da Silva N. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
68', Bosso Torres O. 🟨,
76', Plaza M. ↓, Mansilla C. ↑,
76', Graciani G. ↓, Campos Mosqueira F. ↑,
76', Molina Canto L. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
88', Reyes L. ↓, Salomon C. ↑,
90+3', Sanhueza D. ↓, Munoz B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 1.

Ñublense is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Palestino's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ñublense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ñublense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ñublense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Outrights of Chilean Primera Division for now

Palestino: 0.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36:33	3	36
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32

Last Results with these Odds

Ñublense - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.03%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Palestino - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.45%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Copa de la Liga
12.07.26	OHiggins - Ñublense	2:0 penalties ✺
09.07.26	Ñublense - OHiggins	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
05.07.26	Ñublense - Curicó Unido	2:2 ✺
01.07.26	Universidad de Concepción - Ñublense	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Rangers de Talca - Ñublense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTWW
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Cup
11.07.26	Palestino - Deportes Santa Cruz	3:2 ✺
04.07.26	Deportes Magallanes - Palestino	1:2 ✺
30.06.26	Audax Italiano - Palestino	3:2 ✺
27.06.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Palestino	0:0 ✺
23.06.26	Palestino - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
01.02.26	Palestino - Ñublense	1:1
16.08.25	Ñublense - Palestino	1:0
16.03.25	Palestino - Ñublense	2:0
01.09.24	Palestino - Ñublense	1:1
14.04.24	Ñublense - Palestino	0:2
11.11.23	Ñublense - Palestino	1:1
29.04.23	Palestino - Ñublense	1:2

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