Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 21

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Carvajal R. (Chi)


	Universidad Católica		Unión Española

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4	Watch
	1.83	3.6	4
				Watch
	1.9	3.96	3.95
	1.8	3.4	3.9
	1.8	3.74	4.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.81)	3.7 ↓ (3.84)	4.01 ↓ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica
51.3%

Draw
25.3%

Unión Española
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

24.5%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

24%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The chances for Unión Española have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Española than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Universidad Católica - Unión Española Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Unión Española will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernedo V. (G) 2. Gonzalez D. 6. Arancibia Flores S. A. 3. Mena E. 19. Ampuero B. 17. Medel G. 20. Valencia J. 22. Canales A. 11. Montes C. 9. Zampedri F. 35. Corral D.	1. Parra M. (G) 2. Contreras K. 3. Vidal V. 6. Jauregui B. 8. Carvallo U. B. A. 9. Insaurralde C. 21. Formiliano F. 22. Aranguiz P. 29. Tamayo B. 24. Norambuena G. 23. Jeraldino I.
Substitutes
23. Asta-Buruaga T. 18. Bello E. 4. Perez I. 16. Romero L. 14. Rossel J. 40. Valdes F. (G) 30. Valencia D.	4. Celis M. 20. Marin M. 5. Nadruz A. 10. Uribe A. 12. Uribe E. (G) 19. Vejar B.
Coaches
Garnero D.	Ramirez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Zampedri F. ⚽, Valencia J. (A),
36', Aranguiz P. 🟨,
39', Vidal V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Insaurralde C. ↓, Ratotti F. ↑,
46', Aranguiz P. ↓, Uribe A. ↑,
46', Vidal V. ↓, Celis M. ↑,
57', Valencia J. 🟨,
62', Zampedri F. ↓, Rossel J. ↑,
62', Corral D. ↓, Valencia D. ↑,
73', Montes C. ↓, Bello E. ↑,
75', Norambuena G. ↓, Marin M. ↑,
75', Jeraldino I. ↓, Vejar B. ↑,
76', Medel G. 🟨,
79', Marin M. 🟨,
86', Valencia D. 🟨,
86', Tamayo B. 🟨,
90+1', Valencia J. ↓, Perez I. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Bello E. ⚽, Valencia D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Uni Católica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Uni Católica is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:29. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
16.08.25	Colo-Colo - Universidad Católica	1:4 ✺
02.08.25	Deportes Iquique - Universidad Católica	2:2 ✺
27.07.25	Universidad Católica - Coquimbo Unido	0:3 ✺
20.07.25	Audax Italiano - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	Universidad Católica - Colo-Colo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WTLTW
- Unión Española
Chilean Primera Division
15.08.25	Unión Española - Deportes Iquique	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Unión Española	4:1 ✺
02.08.25	Unión Española - Deportes La Serena	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Palestino - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Unión Española - Unión La Calera	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
28.03.25	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	1:2
29.09.24	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	0:2
04.05.24	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	1:2
31.08.23	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	2:2
12.03.23	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	2:2
19.10.22	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	1:2
13.02.22	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	2:1

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