Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 17

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Lara J. (Chi)


	Palestino		Unión Española

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	4.2	Watch
	1.77	3.75	4.2
	1.75	3.8	4.35	Watch
	1.81	3.91	4.3
	1.76	3.64	4.39	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4
	1.8	3.7	4.31	Watch
	1.94	3.45	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.99)	3.67 ↑ (3.34)	4.2 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
52.1%

Draw
25.5%

Unión Española
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

24.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palestino's performance.

Unión Española has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palestino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Española than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Española could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Palestino - Unión Española Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palestino (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Palestino will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 42. Meza F. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D. 14. Abrigo J. 5. Fernandez J. 8. Parra P. 9. Castro F. 27. Marabel J. 7. Carrasco B. (C)	1. Parra M. (G) 13. Pereira S. 3. Vidal V. 29. Tamayo B. 6. Jauregui B. 2. Contreras K. 18. Espinoza F. 22. Aranguiz P. (C) 10. Uribe A. 7. Ovelar F. 23. Jeraldino I.
Substitutes
18. Arias J. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 26. Contreras D. (G) 12. Fernandez R. 23. Leon J. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 20. Tapia Paez G.	8. Carvallo U. B. A. 4. Celis M. 11. Huerta R. 9. Insaurralde C. 24. Norambuena G. 25. Torgnascioli F. (G) 12. Uribe E. (G)
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Ramirez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Contreras K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Ovelar F. ↓, Insaurralde C. ↑,
59', Uribe A. ↓, Castellani G. ↑,
61', Aranguiz P. 🟨,
63', 1 - 0, Carrasco B. ⚽,
65', Castellani G. 🟨,
67', Marabel J. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
69', Jauregui B. 🟨,
70', Suarez C. 🟨,
71', Jauregui B. 🟥,
77', Abrigo J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
77', Castro F. ↓, Leon J. ↑,
80', Contreras K. ↓, Celis M. ↑,
80', Aranguiz P. ↓, Carvallo U. B. A. ↑,
80', Espinoza F. ↓, Norambuena G. ↑,
86', Carrasco B. ↓, Tapia Paez G. ↑,
86', Parra P. ↓, Montes Romero F. T. ↑,
90+1', Zuniga D. 🟨,
90+5', Montes Romero F. T. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: ) and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palestino won 3.

Palestino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Unión Española has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Unión Española may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palestino is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palestino won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palestino won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Palestino - Bolívar	0:3 ✺
16.07.25	Bolívar - Palestino	3:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
21.06.25	Huachipato - Palestino	2:2 ✺
14.06.25	Palestino - Deportes La Serena	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Palestino - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTWT
- Unión Española
Chilean Primera Division
19.07.25	Unión Española - Unión La Calera	3:1 ✺
05.07.25	Unión Española - Universidad de Chile	0:2 ✺
21.06.25	Unión Española - Coquimbo Unido	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	OHiggins - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
07.06.25	Deportes Melipilla - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Unión Española - Palestino	3:0
Chilean Primera Division
21.02.25	Unión Española - Palestino	0:3
Chilean Cup
01.02.25	Unión Española - Palestino	1:2
Chilean Primera Division
02.11.24	Unión Española - Palestino	2:3
24.05.24	Palestino - Unión Española	0:1
23.09.23	Palestino - Unión Española	2:1
19.03.23	Unión Española - Palestino	2:0

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