Match Info

Serie D - Round 12

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday


	União Carmolandense		Jequié

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.6
	3.15	3.2	2.08
	3.16	3.26	2.06
				Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.4)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	2.21 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União Carmolandense
30.2%

Draw
28.7%

Jequié
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.1%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.2%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União Carmolandense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that União Carmolandense's form might have worsened.

Jequié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jequié's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União Carmolandense than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for União Carmolandense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jequié, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

União Carmolandense - Jequié Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
82', 1 - 0, Gomes Ananias P. H. (Pen),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 5).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, União Carmolandense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União Carmolandense
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense	4:1 ✺
28.06.25	União Carmolandense - Juazeirense	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	União Carmolandense - Sergipe	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - União Carmolandense	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	União Carmolandense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 LWWTL
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Serie D
05.07.25	Juazeirense - Jequié	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
16.06.25	Lagarto - Jequié	2:1 ✺
08.06.25	Jequié - Penedense	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Penedense - Jequié	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
04.05.25	Jequié - União Carmolandense	1:0

União Carmolandense - Jequié: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide