Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday


	Barcelona de Ilhéus		União Carmolandense

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.15	4.05
	1.84	3.15	4.07
				Watch
	1.81	3.16	4.34
	2.1	3.05	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.63)	3.13 ↓ (3.65)	4.02 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona de Ilhéus
48.2%

Draw
29.1%

União Carmolandense
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

24.7%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

25.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona de Ilhéus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barcelona de Ilhéus's form might have worsened.

União Carmolandense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barcelona de Ilhéus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União Carmolandense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona de Ilhéus will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barcelona de Ilhéus will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 1)
50', 1 - 0, Gianlucas ⚽,
63', 2 - 0, Gianlucas ⚽,
74', 3 - 0, Alex Sandre ⚽,
84', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+3', 4 - 1, Juninho Carpina (Pen),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 6)

Barcelona is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

União Carmolandense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

União Carmolandense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Barcelona will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barcelona won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
08.06.25	Sergipe - Barcelona de Ilhéus	4:1 ✺
01.06.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWLLL
- União Carmolandense
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	União Carmolandense - Juazeirense	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	União Carmolandense - Sergipe	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - União Carmolandense	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	União Carmolandense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:4 ✺
25.05.25	Sergipe - União Carmolandense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.9 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
10.05.25	União Carmolandense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	3:0

Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide