Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 23

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo da Portela (Santa Catarina da Serra)


	União da Serra		Marinhense

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	4.95
	1.54	3.75	5.21
	1.58	3.72	5.2	Watch
	1.57	3.4	5
	1.56	3.64	5.38
	1.85	3.05	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.85)	3.49 ↑ (3.05)	4.88 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União da Serra
55.7%

Draw
25.8%

Marinhense
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28.5%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

25.2%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União da Serra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in União da Serra's performance.

Marinhense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marinhense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União da Serra than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marinhense than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

União da Serra - Marinhense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 11 in the zone Relegation).

União da Serra has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Marinhense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

União da Serra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

União da Serra will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, União da Serra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, União da Serra won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Uniao Da Serra	4	2	2	0	6:4	2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União da Serra
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
15.03.26	SC Lusitânia - União da Serra	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lajense - União da Serra	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Eléctrico - União da Serra	2:4 ✺
15.02.26	União da Serra - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWT
- AC Marinhense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
15.03.26	Marinhense - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Os Marialvas - Marinhense	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Eléctrico - Marinhense	4:1 ✺
04.03.26	Marinhense - Naval	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Marinhense - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.11.25	Marinhense - União da Serra	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
19.02.23	Marinhense - União da Serra	1:0
06.11.22	União da Serra - Marinhense	1:2

União da Serra - Marinhense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide