Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)


	1 Dezembro		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.2	1.91
	3.7	2.98	2.08
	25.00	12.90	1.00	Watch
	4.05	3.32	1.98
	4.2	3.95	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.17 ↑ (4.03)	5.27 ↑ (3.88)	1.74 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
13.8%

Draw
21.4%

Leiria
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

23.6%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

23.2%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that 1 Dezembro's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for 1 Dezembro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leiria, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

1 Dezembro - Leiria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Carrasco S. (G)
	41. Daniel Borges
	18. Lottin A.
	17. Lucho Vega
	68. Maga
	86. Michel D.
	72. Oliveira V.
	5. Rofino V. G.
	78. Santos J.
	15. Silva J.
	10. van der Gaag J.
Substitutes
	25. Amado D.
	3. Baro M.
	19. Fernandez P.
	11. Jair da Silva
	9. Munoz J.
	99. Odehnal J. (G)
	6. Rodriguez G.
	52. Sylla H.
	4. Velazquez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
2', 1 - 0, Dede ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Daniel Borges ⚽,
12', 1 - 2, Michel D. ⚽,
22', 1 - 3, Silva J. ⚽,
24', 🟨,
29', 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
76', 🟨,
83', 🟨,

Preview

1 Dezembro is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leiria is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Leiria is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, 1 Dezembro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, 1 Dezembro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
08.11.25	Académica Coimbra - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	1 Dezembro - SB Castelo Branco	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
12.10.25	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLLWL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Leiria - Chaves	2:1 ✺
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Leiria - Leixões	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
11.10.20	1 Dezembro - Leiria	1:2

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