Match Info

Liga 2 - Round 12

Date: 22 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)


	Unión Comercio		Cantolao

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	6.75
	1.22	5.28	10.06
				Watch
	1.31	5	7.36
	1.3	4.9	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.37)	4.98 ↑ (4.75)	7.67 ↑ (6.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
70.1%

Draw
18.1%

Cantolao
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

19.2%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

18%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Cantolao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cantolao than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Unión Comercio - Cantolao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Razzeto S. (G)
	10. Ardiles R.
	3. Baylon F.
	20. Gomez J.
	5. Herrera L.
	25. Laura A. (C)
	7. Lopez Y.
	11. Oliva G.
	16. Ramos J.
	32. Taype S.
	4. Valenzuela R.
Substitutes
	12. Bettocchi R. (G)
	9. Calero A.
	80. Falcon L.
	27. Gonzales P.
	18. Jimenez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Valenzuela R. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Oliva G. ↓, Calero A. ↑,
46', Farias L. ↓, Vargas C. ↑,
59', Vargas C. ↓, Ayala J. ↑,
59', Sanchez K. ↓, Arrieta J. ↑,
69', Morales G. ↓, Velarde M. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Vargas C. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ) and 8 in the zone Liga 2 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Comercio won 4.

Unión Comercio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cantolao has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Cantolao may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Unión Comercio is the obvious favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Unión Comercio won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
08.06.25	Unión Comercio - Bentín Tacna Heroica	3:1 ✺
24.05.25	Deportivo Coopsol - Unión Comercio	3:4 ✺
18.05.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWLW
- AD Cantolao
Peruvian Liga 2
16.06.25	Cantolao - Deportivo Coopsol	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Moquegua - Cantolao	3:0 ✺
31.05.25	Cantolao - Comerciantes Belén	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Universidad San Martín - Cantolao	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Cantolao - Santos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
04.05.25	Cantolao - Unión Comercio	0:1
Peruvian Liga 1
26.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	2:1
10.04.23	Cantolao - Unión Comercio	1:2
21.09.19	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	5:2
06.04.19	Cantolao - Unión Comercio	1:1
02.09.18	Cantolao - Unión Comercio	2:1
19.05.18	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	2:0

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