Match Info

Liga 2 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio 25 de Noviembre (Moquegua)


	Moquegua		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.55	2.58
	2.33	2.97	2.94
	2.42	3.28	2.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (3.05)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	2.69 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 10.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moquegua
38.8%

Draw
27.7%

Unión Comercio
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

26.9%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.6%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moquegua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moquegua's performance.

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Comercio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moquegua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Comercio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Moquegua - Unión Comercio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Figueroa R. (G) 17. Aguirre C. 11. Centurion L. 10. Chavez N. 90. Collazos J. 30. Granda J. (C) 6. Jimenez J. 22. Montenegro E. 18. Rodriguez L. 8. Sanchez D. 5. Vasquez J.	31. Cordova M. (G) 13. Gonzalez N. 28. Jimenez O. 8. Marcos N. 3. Mena J. 4. Montoya C. 20. Morales G. 6. Ojeda A. 29. Perlaza V. (C) 26. Reategui M. 27. Villanueva C.
Substitutes
7. Lasso C. 28. Lopez J. 24. Moreno K. 9. Osorio A. 3. Panizo 14. Ramirez C. 4. Rivera B. 42. Uribe C. 49. Valladares G. (G)	9. Arrieta J. 18. Ayala J. 19. Delgado G. 39. Guerrero G. 15. Marines D. 16. Mendoza Cornejo F. G. 12. Quiroz R. (G) 7. Vargas C. 17. Vargas D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Collazos J. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Perlaza V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
78', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Moquegua has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Unión Comercio is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Unión Comercio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Moquegua won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Moquegua won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 2
05.10.25	Moquegua - ADA Jaén	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Universidad César Vallejo - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Moquegua - Carlos A. Mannucci	6:2 ✺
06.09.25	Cajamarca - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Moquegua - Bentín Tacna Heroica	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWLT
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
21.09.25	Unión Comercio - San Marcos	5:0 ✺
13.09.25	ADA Jaén - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Unión Comercio - Santos	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	San Marcos - Unión Comercio	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
06.07.25	Unión Comercio - Moquegua	1:1
18.05.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	1:0

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