Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 2

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nazca)


	Santos		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.05	2.32
	3.01	3.13	2.2
	3.90	2.86	2.13	Watch
	3.03	3.06	2.26
	2.14	3.15	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.11)	3.05 ↓ (3.14)	2.42 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Santos
31.2%

Draw
30.5%

Unión Comercio
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.3%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos's form might have worsened.

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Comercio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Comercio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Santos - Unión Comercio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Comercio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
	31. Cordova M. (G)
	13. Gonzalez N.
	28. Jimenez O.
	8. Marcos N.
	15. Marines D.
	3. Mena J.
	4. Montoya C.
	20. Morales G.
	. Ojeda A.
	29. Perlaza V.
	26. Reategui M.
Substitutes
	9. Arrieta J.
	18. Ayala J.
	. Cuero J.
	2. Delgado J.
	. Guerrero G.
	12. Quiroz R. (G)
	11. Vargas C.
	14. Vargas C.
	10. Velarde M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 🟨,
28', Cavero G. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Mena J. ⚽,
34', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 0 - 2, Reategui M. ⚽,
60', Mena Y 🟨,
60', Reategui M. 🟨,
67', Estacio M. 🟨,
84', Montoya C. 🟥,
88', Jimenez O. 🟨,
90+3', 🟥,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Unión Comercio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Santos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Santos won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos de Nasca
Peruvian Liga 2
06.07.25	Santos - Cantolao	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Universidad San Martín - Santos	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Santos	4:0 ✺
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Deportivo Coopsol - Santos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWW
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Unión Comercio - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
22.06.25	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1
26.04.25	Unión Comercio - Santos	3:1
14.08.22	Santos - Unión Comercio	1:0
15.05.22	Unión Comercio - Santos	3:1
11.09.21	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:1
12.07.21	Unión Comercio - Santos	0:2
18.11.20	Santos - Unión Comercio	3:4

Upcoming Matches