Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - CLAUSURA - ROUND 16

Date: 28 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)


	Unión Comercio		Escuela Municipal Binacional

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	5	Watch
	1.55	3.8	4.75
	1.6	4.2	5	Watch
	1.62	4.14	5.05
	1.53	4	5
	1.6	4.15	5.1	Watch
	1.6	4.1	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (2.18)	4.07 ↑ (3.44)	4.96 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
58.7%

Draw
22.7%

Escuela Municipal Binacional
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.1%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.4%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Comercio's performance.

Escuela Municipal Binacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Escuela Municipal Binacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Comercio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Escuela Municipal Binacional than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Escuela Municipal Binacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Unión Comercio - Escuela Municipal Binacional Predictions

Users Predictions: Unión Comercio will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Ruiz Ordinola R. P. (C) 17. Vargas D. 16. Uculmana F. 24. Payares L. 28. Aranda S. 5. Sanchez K. 11. Barreto O. 7. Carranza M. 10. Neira C. 30. Guerrero G. 9. de Jesus M.	21. Azurin A. (G) 14. Quina M. 2. Minaya D. 5. Murillo Y. 25. Rosell Delgado J. A. 13. Oncoy F. 7. Aubert E. (C) 6. Mifflin L. 17. Palacios B. 18. Nunez O. 19. Zeta H.
Substitutes
29. Alvarez J. 27. Arrieta J. 19. Arroe J. 32. Carhualllanqui J. 12. Diaz W. (G) 6. Palacios N. 26. Reategui A. 13. Trauco J. 22. Vargas C.	31. Chumpitaz M. 27. Cirilo J. 20. Crespo H. 1. Enriquez D. (G) 4. Romero A. 22. Vizcarra J.
Coaches
Vivas M.	Vaioli C.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Unión Comercio is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
24.09.23	FBC Melgar - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
20.09.23	Unión Comercio - Carlos A. Mannucci	0:0 ✺
17.09.23	Alianza Lima - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
26.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cantolao	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Alianza Atlético - Unión Comercio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTLWT
- Escuela Municipal Binacional
Peruvian Liga 1
23.09.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Cantolao	1:0 ✺
19.09.23	Alianza Atlético - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:0 ✺
15.09.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
03.09.23	Sport Huancayo - Escuela Municipal Binacional	3:1 ✺
26.08.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Cusco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
22.05.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Unión Comercio	5:0
27.10.19	Unión Comercio - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:2
11.05.19	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Unión Comercio	3:1
01.11.18	Unión Comercio - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:1
06.08.18	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Unión Comercio	1:1
30.03.18	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Unión Comercio	3:0
12.02.18	Unión Comercio - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:2

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