Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio El Teniente (Rancagua)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DSports 1
World	Disney+


	Unión Española		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.5	3	2.95	Watch
	2.5	3.25	3.06
	2.46	3.17	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3.24	2.99	Watch
	2.5	3	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (4.3)	3.11 ↓ (3.32)	3.04 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Española
38.8%

Draw
30.2%

Fluminense
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

28.3%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

28.2%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Española has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Española's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Española than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Española that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+19.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Unión Española - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Unión Española will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión Española: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Española (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Unión Española (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Unión Española (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Española (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Torgnascioli F. (G) 19. Vejar B. 3. Vidal V. 21. Diaz N. 18. Espinoza F. 20. Marin M. 6. Jauregui B. 11. Montes C. 10. Uribe A. 22. Aranguiz P. (C) 9. Suarez M.	98. Vitor Eudes (G) 46. Julio Fidelis 26. Manoel 29. Thiago Santos 36. Vagno 5. Bernal F. (C) 16. Nonato 90. Serna K. 18. Lezcano R. 11. Keno 9. Everaldo
Substitutes
8. Carvallo U. B. A. 30. Garrido 31. Naranjo L. 24. Norambuena G. 7. Ovelar F. 1. Parra M. (G) 13. Pereira S. 16. Ramirez S. 27. Robles D.	40. Davi Schuindt 53. Fabinho 13. Gustavo Cintra 52. Gustavo Dohmann 50. Gustavo Ramalho (G) 25. Kelwin 99. Keven 19. Lavega J. 77. Paulo Baya 42. Thiago 55. Wallace Davi 34. Wesley Nata
Coaches
Sierra Jose L.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Bernal F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Marin M. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
58', Julio Fidelis 🟨,
65', Vagno 🟨,
66', Montes C. ↓, Ovelar F. ↑,
70', Serna K. ↓, Wesley Nata ↑,
71', Keno ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
71', Lezcano R. ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
71', Diaz N. 🟨,
81', Vagno ↓, Gustavo Cintra ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Aranguiz P. ⚽, Vejar B. (A),
87', Suarez M. 🟨,
88', Suarez M. ↓, Norambuena G. ↑,
88', Espinoza F. ↓, Pereira S. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Nonato ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Unión Española is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Fluminense have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Española
Chilean Primera Division
18.04.25	Audax Italiano - Unión Española	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Unión Española - Ñublense	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Unión Española - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Unión Española - Palestino	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	GVCD San José - Unión Española	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLWT
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Corinthians - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Fluminense - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Fluminense - GVCD San José	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Fluminense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TWWWW

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