Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 3
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Corinthians		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.8	Watch
	2.10	3.20	3.70
	2.05	3	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.23	4.04
	2.22	3.17	3.54
	2.12	3.15	3.9
	2.15	3.23	3.76	Watch
	2.13	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.25)	3.16 ↑ (3.08)	3.76 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
44.7%

Draw
30%

Fluminense
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

30%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

30.1%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	28.6%	21.4%

Corinthians - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Fluminense will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 55. Machado I. 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 49. Andre 14. Raniele 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 7. Breno Bidon 10. Depay M.	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 29. Millan J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
29. Allan 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 4. Joao Pedro 51. Kaue (G) 77. Lingard J. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M. 11. Vitinho	19. Castillo R. 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 21. Igor Rabello 44. Jemmes 46. Julio Fidelis 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 28. Riquelme Felipe 11. Savarino J. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Diniz F.	Marcao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Depay M. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Hulk ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
35', Matheuzinho 🟨,
44', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
45+6', Martinelli 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Machado I. ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Gustavo Henrique ⚽,
59', Samuel Xavier ↓, Julio Fidelis ↑,
59', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
61', Andre 🟨,
62', Canobbio A. 🟨,
64', Julio Fidelis 🟨,
72', Nonato 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Hulk ⚽, PH Ganso (A),
76', Canobbio A. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
76', Nonato ↓, Hercules ↑,
80', Andre ↓, Lingard J. ↑,
81', Depay M. ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
87', Hulk ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
88', Breno Bidon ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Serna K. ⚽, Martinelli (A),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 14th and 5th in the Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.

Corinthians is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Fluminense have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fluminense could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Corinthians holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Corinthians: Andre Ramalho (Inactive) Kayke (Knee Injury) Labyad Z. (Knee Injury) Yuri Alberto (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Fluminense: Alisson (Hip Injury) Cano G. (Injury) Ignacio (Injury) John Kennedy (Knee Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Fluminense: Samuel Xavier (Shoulder Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:24 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Corinthians against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 15:6 goals (averaging 1.7:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Corinthians: 0.88% Fluminense: 0.68%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.17%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Fluminense - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 28.79%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	Corinthians - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Corinthians - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Corinthians - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLTLL
- Fluminense RJ
Copa Libertadores
15.09.26	Platense - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.09.26	Fluminense - Platense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Fluminense - Corinthians	3:1
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1
16.04.25	Corinthians - Fluminense	0:2
17.08.24	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:0
28.04.24	Corinthians - Fluminense	3:0
19.10.23	Fluminense - Corinthians	3:3
28.05.23	Corinthians - Fluminense	2:0

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