Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Fluminense		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	5.5	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.7
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.8	3.27	5.3	Watch
	2.1	3	3.75
	1.82	3.33	5.41	Watch
	1.8	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.98)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	4.81 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
50.6%

Draw
29.6%

Santos
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

29.4%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

29.4%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Fluminense - Santos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 45. Lima 21. Arias J. 14. Cano G. 17. Canobbio A.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 29. Godoy L. 4. Gil (C) 2. Ze Ivaldo 31. Escobar G. 21. Diego Pituca 5. Joao Schmidt 16. Thaciano 32. Rollheiser B. 9. Tiquinho Soares 11. Guilherme
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 9. Everaldo 4. Ignacio 11. Keno 19. Lavega J. 66. Leo Jance 18. Lezcano R. 26. Manoel 10. PH Ganso 90. Serna K. 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	22. Barreal A. 36. Deivid Washington 49. Gabriel Bontempo 70. Gabriel Veron 3. Joao Basso 1. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 14. Luan Peres 25. Luisao 10. Neymar 8. Rincon T. 7. Soteldo Y.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Caixinha P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
37', Cano G. 🟨,
39', Joao Paulo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hercules ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
46', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Deivid Washington ↑,
46', Thaciano ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
46', Rollheiser B. ↓, Neymar ↑,
60', Neymar 🟨,
69', Canobbio A. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
69', Lima ↓, Keno ↑,
70', Diego Pituca ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
75', Soteldo Y. ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
78', Bernal F. 🟨,
83', Godoy L. 🟨,
85', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
89', Martinelli ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
90+6', 1 - 0, Samuel Xavier ⚽, Arias J. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 2.

Fluminense is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Santos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fluminense is a favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Fuentes G. (Hamstring Injury) Isaque Silva (Inactive) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury) Renato Augusto (Shoulder Injury) Riquelme Felipe (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Knee Injury) Hyan (Inactive) Neymar (Hamstring Injury) Souza (Ankle Injury) Ze Rafael (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Guga (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 24:25 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:10 (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Fluminense - GVCD San José	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Fluminense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Once Caldas - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Fortaleza - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.03.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLT
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Santos - Bahia	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Santos	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
29.11.23	Santos - Fluminense	0:3
29.07.23	Fluminense - Santos	1:0
01.08.22	Santos - Fluminense	2:2
09.04.22	Fluminense - Santos	0:0
27.10.21	Santos - Fluminense	2:0
17.06.21	Fluminense - Santos	1:0
21.02.21	Santos - Fluminense	1:1

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