Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 6

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK (Santiago de Chile)


	Unión Española		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.5	2.45
	2.9	3.45	2.36	Watch
	2.89	3.41	2.35
	2.7	3.3	2.4
	2.91	3.4	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3.45	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.45)	3.43 ↑ (3.32)	2.38 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Española
33.1%

Draw
27.4%

Universidad Católica
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

28%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28.6%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Española has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universidad Católica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Española than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Española, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universidad Católica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Unión Española - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Torgnascioli F. (G) 16. Ramirez S. 3. Vidal V. 21. Diaz N. 18. Espinoza F. 15. Vasquez R. 5. Nadruz A. 14. Nunez I. (C) 10. Uribe A. 7. Ovelar F. 23. Jeraldino I.	1. Bernedo V. (G) 6. Arancibia Flores S. A. 19. Ampuero B. 17. Medel G. 15. Cuevas C. 8. Zuqui F. 20. Valencia J. 22. Canales A. 7. Jader 9. Zampedri F. (C) 99. Valencia D.
Substitutes
22. Aranguiz P. 8. Carvallo U. B. A. 6. Jauregui B. 20. Marin M. 24. Norambuena G. 1. Parra M. (G) 13. Pereira S.	18. Bello E. 25. Farias A. 2. Gonzalez D. 27. Melo D. (G) 3. Mena E. 11. Montes C. 14. Rossel J.
Coaches
Sierra Jose L.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Zampedri F. ⚽, Valencia D. (A),
42', Ampuero B. 🟨,
45', Valencia D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Vasquez R. ↓, Aranguiz P. ↑,
46', Ovelar F. ↓, Marin M. ↑,
46', Jader ↓, Bello E. ↑,
55', 0 - 2, Bello E. ⚽, Canales A. (A),
68', Medel G. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
69', Valencia D. ↓, Montes C. ↑,
69', Nunez I. ↓, Carvallo U. B. A. ↑,
70', Espinoza F. ↓, Norambuena G. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Aranguiz P. (Pen),
79', Diaz N. 🟨,
83', Torgnascioli F. 🟨,
83', Vidal V. 🟨,
84', Valencia J. 🟨,
85', Cuevas C. ↓, Mena E. ↑,
90+1', Canales A. ↓, Farias A. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Española won 1.

Recent matches Unión Española is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Uni Católica is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Uni Católica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Unión Española won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 29:29 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Española won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:14 (average 1.6:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Unión Española - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.84%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Española
Chilean Cup
21.03.25	Unión Española - Audax Italiano	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
16.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Unión Española	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Unión Española - Everton de Viña	3:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.25	Deportes La Serena - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
21.02.25	Unión Española - Palestino	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWWLL
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Cup
21.03.25	Universidad Católica - Unión La Calera	0:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
08.03.25	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Universidad Católica - Palestino	1:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.25	Universidad Católica - Deportes Iquique	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Coquimbo Unido - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
29.09.24	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	0:2
04.05.24	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	1:2
31.08.23	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	2:2
12.03.23	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	2:2
19.10.22	Unión Española - Universidad Católica	1:2
13.02.22	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	2:1
06.10.21	Universidad Católica - Unión Española	2:1

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