Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 4 - ROUND 17

Date: 7 January 2024, Sunday


	Vélez		UCAM Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.85	2.65
	2.6	3	2.75	Watch
	2.81	2.83	2.82
	2.81	2.77	2.82
	2.38	2.88	2.8
	2.56	2.89	2.74
	2.5	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.26)	2.87 ↓ (2.9)	2.77 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez
35.2%

Draw
31.8%

UCAM Murcia
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

30.9%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

32.8%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

UCAM Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vélez, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for UCAM Murcia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vélez - UCAM Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 7).

Recent matches Vélez is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

UCAM Murcia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vélez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Vélez won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
17.12.23	Marbella - Vélez	1:1 ✺
10.12.23	Sevilla B - Vélez	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Vélez - San Roque de Lepe	2:1 ✺
26.11.23	Racing Cartagena MM - Vélez	3:0 ✺
19.11.23	Vélez - Linense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TTWLW
- UCAM Murcia CF
Club Friendly
29.12.23	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
17.12.23	UCAM Murcia - Sevilla B	0:0 ✺
10.12.23	San Roque de Lepe - UCAM Murcia	3:0 ✺
03.12.23	UCAM Murcia - Racing Cartagena MM	2:1 ✺
26.11.23	Linense - UCAM Murcia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.02.23	UCAM Murcia - Vélez	4:0
18.09.22	Vélez - UCAM Murcia	1:0

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