Match Info

Serie D - Winners stage - Round 3

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Vado		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.05	3
	2.15	3.18	3.02
	2.25	3.05	3.11	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3
	2.19	3.13	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.26)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	3.04 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vado
40.9%

Draw
29.4%

Folgore Caratese
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.3%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Folgore Caratese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vado than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Folgore Caratese aligns with the current prediction.

Vado - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Folgore Caratese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Folgore Caratese has had a series of home games.

Vado is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vado won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Vado - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.45%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vado
Italian Serie D - Group A
26.04.26	NovaRomentin - Vado	0:5 ✺
19.04.26	Vado - Cairese	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Lavagnese - Vado	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Vado - Chisola	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Gozzano - Vado	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWWT
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group A
13.05.26	Folgore Caratese - Treviso	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group B
19.04.26	Folgore Caratese - Real Calepina	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Folgore Caratese - Oltrepo	1:1 ✺
02.04.26	Scanzorosciate - Folgore Caratese	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Folgore Caratese - Caldiero Terme	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
18.04.21	Folgore Caratese - Vado	1:2

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