Match Info

Challenge League - Round 30

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Bellinzona (Bellinzona)

Referee: Qovanaj H. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5


	Bellinzona		Aarau

	1	X	2
	7.3	5.3	1.31
	7.67	5.65	1.33
	7.79	5.5	1.33	Watch
	7	5	1.3
	7.47	5.48	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.45 ↑ (5.15)	5.39 ↑ (4.28)	1.32 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bellinzona
12.5%

Draw
17.2%

Aarau
70.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

21.5%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

21.2%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bellinzona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bellinzona's form might have worsened.

Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aarau's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bellinzona than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aarau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Bellinzona - Aarau Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bellinzona will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Aarau will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Trochen E. (G) 5. Rizvanovic M. 24. Jashari E. 6. Trapero 23. Goncalves M. (C) 88. Mosquera D. 92. Moulin P. 10. Lymann F. 80. Kury J. 7. Rossier E. 45. Jaiteh M.	30. Hirzel A. (G) 29. Dickenmann M. 15. Muller S. 2. Thaler M. (C) 31. Petit V. 27. Obexer L. 13. Zoukit N. 10. Fazliu V. 23. Frokaj L. 11. Vladi S. 9. Filet E.
Substitutes
25. Ayala D. 34. Fetahu E. 77. Grano A. 99. Lopez A. 4. Lopez B. 20. Mayorga J. 16. Muci A. (G) 8. Rey A.	18. Afriyie D. 6. Aliu I. 32. Bobadilla R. 14. Chacon T. 25. Derbaci D. 8. Jackle O. 17. Koide H. 19. Schwegler S. 70. Zalokar S. (G)
Coaches
Sannino G.	Iacopetta B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Rizvanovic M. 🟨,
36', Muller S. 🟨,
41', Kury J. 🟨,
41', Rossier E. ↓, Mayorga J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Mosquera D. 🟨,
57', Thaler M. 🟨,
64', Filet E. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
64', Lymann F. ↓, Ayala D. ↑,
67', Jashari E. 🟨,
72', Moulin P. ↓, Rey A. ↑,
72', Rizvanovic M. ↓, Lopez B. ↑,
76', Fazliu V. ↓, Chacon T. ↑,
76', Vladi S. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
85', Jaiteh M. 🟨,
89', Frokaj L. 🟨,
90', Frokaj L. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 1.

Bellinzona is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aarau is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Aarau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aarau is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Bellinzona: Bomo J. (Yellow Cards) Dermaku D. (Knee Injury) Mihajlovic D. (Inactive) Osigwe S. (Injury) Sadiku A. (Injury) Shabani M. (Injury) Shala L. (Inactive) Sorensen A. (Injury)

There will not play in Aarau: Acquah D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Aarau: Guzzo R. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:28. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bellinzona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.9:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aarau	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Bellinzona
Swiss Challenge League
07.04.26	Vaduz - Bellinzona	3:2 ✺
03.04.26	Yverdon - Bellinzona	5:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bellinzona - Lausanne Ouchy	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	0:3 ✺
07.03.26	Wil 1900 - Bellinzona	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWLT
- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
07.04.26	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Rapperswil-Jona - Aarau	4:5 ✺
21.03.26	Aarau - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:0 ✺
13.03.26	Aarau - Vaduz	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
24.01.26	Aarau - Bellinzona	1:0
08.11.25	Bellinzona - Aarau	5:1
13.08.25	Aarau - Bellinzona	1:0
31.03.25	Bellinzona - Aarau	1:1
01.02.25	Aarau - Bellinzona	2:1
09.11.24	Bellinzona - Aarau	1:4
31.08.24	Aarau - Bellinzona	1:2

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