Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - GROUP B - ROUND 18

Date: 4 February 2024, Sunday


	Valadares Gaia		Amarante

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.3	1.57
	5.5	3.4	1.6
	5.4	3.38	1.55
	5.98	3.43	1.55
	5.81	3.48	1.57
	5.8	3.45	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↓ (7.32)	3.41 ↓ (4.5)	1.57 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valadares Gaia
15.9%

Draw
26.5%

Amarante
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.4%

20.1%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1%

19.7%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valadares Gaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Amarante might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valadares Gaia than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amarante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group (Promotion Group: )).

Valadares Gaia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Amarante is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Valadares Gaia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Amarante is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Valadares Gaia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Valadares Gaia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valadares Gaia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.01.24	Rebordosa - Valadares Gaia	1:0 ✺
20.01.24	Valadares Gaia - Paredes	1:4 ✺
14.01.24	Marco 09 - Valadares Gaia	3:1 ✺
07.01.24	Valadares Gaia - Oliveira do Douro	1:3 ✺
17.12.23	Valadares Gaia - Salgueiros 08	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW
- Amarante FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães B - Amarante	1:1 ✺
21.01.24	Amarante - Rebordosa	0:0 ✺
14.01.24	Paredes - Amarante	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Gil Vicente - Amarante	3:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.01.24	Amarante - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
01.10.23	Amarante - Valadares Gaia	2:0
14.12.19	Valadares Gaia - Amarante	1:2

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