Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Municipal das Laranjeiras (Paredes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Paredes		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.88	2.98	4.15
	1.97	3.1	4.19	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4
	1.91	3.1	4.47
	1.8	3.1	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.73)	3.04 ↓ (3.17)	4.23 ↓ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paredes
48.3%

Draw
30.1%

Amarante
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

28.6%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

30.4%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paredes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paredes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-4%)

Paredes - Amarante Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Amarante (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Amarante (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matos F. (G) 2. Araujo P. 99. Balelo 3. Duarte D. P. 14. Erik 44. Ferreira P. (C) 23. Macedo Z. 7. Miguel 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 21. Veiga D. 84. Yuk J.	1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 2. Ribeiro O. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura 22. Vivas S.
Substitutes
24. Buby 8. Carvalho D. 9. Fonseca R. 16. Goncalves T. (G) 20. Lemos I. M. 6. Matheus Brito 5. Moreira Nuno 26. Santos Outeiro D. 29. Vasco Rocha	88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 26. Nascimento D. 99. Roger 17. Sousa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Mendes F. 🟨,
60', Ventura ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
60', Veiga D. ↓, Lemos I. M. ↑,
61', Macedo Z. ↓, Santos Outeiro D. ↑,
61', Miguel ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
70', Duarte D. P. 🟨,
70', 🟨,
71', Rodrigues D. ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
75', 🟨,
78', Yuk J. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
86', 🟨,
90', Araujo P. 🟨,
90+1', Erik ↓, Moreira Nuno ↑,
90+1', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Arome ↑,
90+2', Mendes F. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 0.

Paredes is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Amarante is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Paredes is the team to beat.

We predict that Paredes will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paredes won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Paredes	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Paredes - Varzim	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Trofense - Paredes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTT
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Amarante - Braga B	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	São João de Ver - Amarante	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Amarante - Fafe	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Amarante - Marco 09	3:2 ✺
06.12.25	Sanjoanense - Amarante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
26.10.25	Amarante - Paredes	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.01.24	Paredes - Amarante	1:3
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Paredes - Amarante	0:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
27.08.23	Amarante - Paredes	1:0
13.02.22	Paredes - Amarante	0:0
28.11.21	Amarante - Paredes	2:3
03.04.21	Amarante - Paredes	0:1

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