Match Info

PORTUGAL: TAÇA DE PORTUGAL - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 10 January 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Vieira B. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Gil Vicente		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.2	5.5	15
	1.21	5.5	11.5	Watch
	1.2	6	15	Watch
	1.21	5.57	14.79
	1.2	5.57	14.79
	1.17	6	13
	1.22	6.25	14	Watch
	1.21	6	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.32)	5.8 ↑ (4.78)	13.89 ↑ (8.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
77.3%

Draw
16%

Amarante
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

19.4%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

15.8%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gil Vicente's performance.

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-20.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gil Vicente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amarante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Gil Vicente - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: Gil Vicente will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos 4. Ne Lopes 35. Felipe Silva 23. Buta L. 24. Gbane M. 8. Dominguez M. 77. Murilo 10. Fujimoto K. 11. Marlon 78. Miro	1. Abreu J. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 4. Filipe J. 8. Tokinho 10. Semedo K. 11. Correa E. 12. Zangre A. 25. Mica 28. Ferreira R. 64. Vila D. 88. Aguiar E.
Substitutes
21. Baturina R. 6. Castillo J. 70. Correia F. 5. Kiko 27. Monteiro M. 76. Neto M. 26. Ruben 1. Vinicius Dias (G) 14. Wilson R.	7. Bonkat P. 9. Cardoso F. 65. Figueiredo D. (G) 17. Filipe R. 21. Martim F. 99. Morais R. (G) 16. Santos L. 20. Silva A. 90. Soares P.
Coaches
Campelos V.	Coimbra R.

Preview

Gil Vicente is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Amarante is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gil Vicente could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Gil Vicente is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
06.01.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
30.12.23	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Arouca - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
11.12.23	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
04.12.23	Sporting Lisbon - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLTL
- Amarante FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.01.24	Amarante - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
17.12.23	Amarante - Oliveira do Douro	1:1 ✺
10.12.23	Salgueiros 08 - Amarante	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Amarante - Lamelas	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Paredes - Amarante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTWW

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