Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 13

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	2.42	2.82	2.92
	2.54	2.92	3.21
	2.51	2.86	3.11	Watch
	2.5	2.7	3
	2.38	2.8	3.09
	2.45	2.71	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.25)	2.8 ↓ (2.9)	3.06 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
37.2%

Draw
32.8%

Marco 09
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

31.5%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.2%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Amarante - Marco 09 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Amarante (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 22. Vivas S. 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 28. Pedro R. 6. Almeida F. 5. Innusah H. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura	99. Carvalho D. (G) 2. Sousa B. 18. Martins D. 3. Pedro M. (C) 5. Nandinho 53. Matos T. 20. Andrezinho 88. Silva D. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 57. Kibe 95. Sousa V.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 17. Sousa G. 64. Vila D.	79. Erivaldo 14. Fati V. 27. Guimaraes B. 9. Marllon 21. Pedrosa C. 59. Sousa T. 4. Valente M. 26. Ze Couto (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Rodrigues D. ⚽,
28', Sousa B. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Mauro Ribeiro ⚽, Silva D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Almeida F. ↓, Arome ↑,
46', Ribeiro O. ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Saint-Louis J. ⚽,
70', 2 - 2, Sousa V. ⚽, Nandinho (A),
80', 3 - 2, Saint-Louis J. ⚽,
88', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ))

Amarante is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Marco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Amarante could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Amarante won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
06.12.25	Sanjoanense - Amarante	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Varzim - Amarante	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Trofense - Amarante	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Amarante - Paredes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WLTWW
- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Marco 09 - Sanjoanense	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Marco 09	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Varzim - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Marco 09 - Trofense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Marco 09 - Amarante	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.01.24	Amarante - Marco 09	1:0
20.08.23	Marco 09 - Amarante	0:1

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