Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - ROUND 17

Date: 5 February 2023, Sunday


	Valadares Gaia		Leça

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.3	4.6
	1.75	3.05	4.25
	1.93	3.17	4.21
	1.67	3.45	4.75
	1.7	3.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.07)	3.29 ↑ (2.99)	4.46 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valadares Gaia
52.1%

Draw
27.6%

Leça
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

30.3%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.8%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valadares Gaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valadares Gaia's performance.

Leça has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leça might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valadares Gaia than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valadares Gaia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leça than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leça could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 8 and 7).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Valadares Gaia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valadares Gaia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Valadares Gaia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valadares Gaia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
29.01.23	Castro Daire - Valadares Gaia	0:1 ✺
22.01.23	Valadares Gaia - Beira-Mar	0:2 ✺
15.01.23	Marítimo B - Valadares Gaia	2:1 ✺
08.01.23	Guarda Desportiva - Valadares Gaia	0:3 ✺
18.12.22	Valadares Gaia - Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLWW
- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
29.01.23	Leça - Camacha	1:1 ✺
22.01.23	Machico - Leça	0:1 ✺
15.01.23	Leça - Resende	0:1 ✺
18.12.22	Leça - Beira-Mar	1:0 ✺
11.12.22	Marítimo B - Leça	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.10.22	Leça - Valadares Gaia	3:1
06.02.22	Leça - Valadares Gaia	3:2
01.12.21	Valadares Gaia - Leça	0:1
08.02.20	Valadares Gaia - Leça	1:4
15.09.19	Leça - Valadares Gaia	1:0

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