Match Info

National - Round 23

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade du Hainaut (Valenciennes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN App
Ecuador	DAZN App
France	BFM Grand Lille
Mexico	DAZN App
Paraguay	DAZN App
Peru	DAZN App
Uruguay	DAZN App
Venezuela	DAZN App
World	FIFA+


	Valenciennes		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.15	3.05
	2.34	3.2	3.25
	2.24	3.21	2.98	Watch
	2.31	3.25	3.04	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 (2.25)	3.18 ↑ (3.13)	3.06 (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valenciennes
40.9%

Draw
29%

Caen
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

29.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

27.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valenciennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Valenciennes - Caen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Louchet J. (G) 32. Niakate S. 5. Passi B. 29. Coeff A. 20. Koum Mbondo A. 25. Belloumou S. 8. Rouai M. 33. Marechal T. 26. Diomande D. 18. Courtet G. 14. Raheriniaina E. H.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 17. Labonne R. 31. Kimboma J. 28. Sagnan S. 14. Rajot L. 27. Debohi D. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 5. Dali Amar B. 19. Botella I. 22. Hafid M. 11. Gnanduillet A.
Substitutes
7. Abi C. 11. Appuah S. 22. Boissier R. 10. Ipiele A. 4. Landre L.	9. Duville-Parsemain A. 26. Etuin M. 12. Mazie O. 23. Morante L. . Portut K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Courtet G. ⚽, Diomande D. (A),
44', 2 - 0, Courtet G. ⚽, Koum Mbondo A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Rouai M. 🟨,
59', Labonne R. ↓, Etuin M. ↑,
59', Rajot L. ↓, Mazie O. ↑,
59', Dali Amar B. ↓, Duville-Parsemain A. ↑,
69', Marechal T. ↓, Boissier R. ↑,
69', Diomande D. ↓, Appuah S. ↑,
69', Gnanduillet A. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
72', Kimboma J. ↓, Morante L. ↑,
73', Courtet G. ↓, Abi C. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Hafid M. ⚽, Mazie O. (A),
84', Raheriniaina E. H. ↓, Ipiele A. ↑,
84', Belloumou S. ↓, Landre L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valenciennes won 0.

Valenciennes is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caen has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Valenciennes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Valenciennes won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Valenciennes won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15
15	Valenciennes	9	2	2	5	9:14	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 3
20.02.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Valenciennes	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Valenciennes - Stade Briochin	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Rouen FC - Valenciennes	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Valenciennes - Orleans	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Le Puy - Valenciennes	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWLL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
20.02.26	Caen - Sochaux	1:3 ✺
13.02.26	Dijon - Caen	3:3 ✺
06.02.26	Caen - Fleury 91	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Versailles - Caen	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Caen - Quevilly	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
19.09.25	Caen - Valenciennes	0:0
French Ligue 2
17.05.24	Caen - Valenciennes	3:0
28.10.23	Valenciennes - Caen	2:2
18.03.23	Caen - Valenciennes	2:1
05.11.22	Valenciennes - Caen	1:1
15.03.22	Valenciennes - Caen	1:1
02.10.21	Caen - Valenciennes	1:2

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