Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Hlídarendi (Reykjavík)

Referee: Cerny D. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland 3
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Valur		Kauno Žalgiris

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.06	3.47	3.33
	2.22	3.53	2.99	Watch
	1.83	3.4	4
	2.12	3.56	3.48	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.98)	3.42 ↑ (3.08)	3.43 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valur
45.6%

Draw
27.2%

Kauno Žalgiris
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

27.1%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Kauno Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.2%	17.1%	9.8%

Valur - Kauno Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Valur will win (votes: 30 - 73.2%). Kauno Žalgiris will win (votes: 4 - 9.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 17.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valur: 59.6% – 86.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Valur (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Kauno Žalgiris (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Valur (3.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Valur (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Kauno Žalgiris (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Schram F. (G) 20. Omarsson O. 15. Eyjolfsson H. (C) 6. Antonsson B. 21. Palsson J. 8. Jonsson J. 17. Heimisson L. 10. Sigurdsson K. 12. Haraldsson T. 14. Skoglund A. 9. Pedersen P.	55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 21. Bah-Traore H. 3. Tolordava A. 23. Hernandez A. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 6. Pavlovic D. 70. Ourega F. 7. Benchaib A. 9. Chogadze T. 77. Georgijevic D.
Substitutes
25. Agustsson S. (G) 33. Hoti A. 95. Johannesson S. (G) 7. Johannsson A. 97. Jonsson B. 19. Kjartansson O. 30. Kjeld M. 11. Larusson S. 4. Nakkim M. 23. Palsson A.	8. Armanavicius V. 28. Burdzilauskas E. 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 19. Jansonas R. 66. Jurjonas E. 5. Kerkez D. 20. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 35. Miksiunas J. (G) 79. Paulauskas V. 30. Vosylius N.
Coaches
Tufegdzic S.	Cerniauskas E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Chogadze T. ⚽, Pavlovic D. (A),
40', Skoglund A. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Omarsson O. ⚽,
45+4', Svedkauskas T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 2, Benchaib A. ⚽,
54', Sigurdsson K. 🟨,
64', Georgijevic D. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
64', Pavlovic D. ↓, Armanavicius V. ↑,
70', Sigurdsson K. ↓, Johannsson A. ↑,
70', Skoglund A. ↓, Palsson A. ↑,
75', Chogadze T. ↓, Cernych F. ↑,
84', Jonsson J. ↓, Hoti A. ↑,
84', Palsson J. ↓, Jonsson B. ↑,
90', Palsson A. 🟨,
90+2', Benchaib A. ↓, Burdzilauskas E. ↑,
90+2', Sirgedas G. ↓, Lekiatas R. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Valur is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kauno Žalgiris is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kauno Žalgiris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Valur could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Valur won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valur Reykjavik
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
27.07.25	Valur - FH Hafnarfjordur	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Valur	1:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
20.07.25	Vikingur Reykjavik - Valur	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Valur	1:2 ✺
10.07.25	Valur - Flora Tallinn	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWWW
- FK Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Valur	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Dainava Alytus	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Pen-y-Bont - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
10.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Pen-y-Bont	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.25	Riteriai - Kauno Žalgiris	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Valur	1:1

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