Match Info

SWEDEN: ALLSVENSKAN - ROUND 6

Date: 4 May 2023, Thursday

Location: Paskbergsvallen (Varberg)

Referee: Wolf V. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Sweden	Discovery+


	Varbergs BoIS		Malmö

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.75	1.4	Watch
	7	4.5	1.42
	8	4.5	1.41
	8.54	4.61	1.43
	8	4.2	1.35	Watch
	7.9	4.85	1.39	Watch
	7.4	4.6	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.76 ↑ (6.63)	4.57 ↓ (4.65)	1.4 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varbergs BoIS
12.1%

Draw
20.6%

Malmö
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

20.2%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.7%

19.7%

67.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varbergs BoIS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Malmö has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varbergs BoIS than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malmö than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.2%	7.7%	73.1%

Varbergs BoIS - Malmö Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Varberg will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). Malmö will win (votes: 19 - 73.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Malmö: 56.1% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification: )).

Varberg has the most likely position - 16 (23.02%), project points - 28, currently - 4, a chance of relegated (47%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Malmö has the most likely position - 1 (45.11%), project points - 63, currently - 15, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a chance of qualify for ucl (45%), a chance of win league (45%).

This event has small quality 23, importance 58, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varberg won 1.

Recent matches Varberg is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Malmö in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Malmö is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Varberg: Liljenback A. (Knee Injury) Mensah G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Malmö: Diawara I. (Injury) Moisander N. (Knee Injury) Siby M. (Hip Injury) Tinnerholm A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Varberg: Alfonsi D. (Injury) Berggren A. (Injury) Birkfeldt J. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Varberg won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Varberg won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varbergs BoIS
Swedish Allsvenskan
30.04.23	Varbergs BoIS - Kalmar	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	Hammarby - Varbergs BoIS	2:0 ✺
17.04.23	Varbergs BoIS - Sirius	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Varbergs BoIS - Elfsborg	0:0 ✺
03.04.23	Mjällby - Varbergs BoIS	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLTTT
- Malmö FF
Swedish Allsvenskan
30.04.23	Malmö - Hammarby	4:2 ✺
24.04.23	Malmö - Norrköping	3:0 ✺
17.04.23	IFK Göteborg - Malmö	0:1 ✺
08.04.23	Brommapojkarna - Malmö	1:2 ✺
01.04.23	Malmö - Kalmar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
30.10.22	Varbergs BoIS - Malmö	2:5
09.07.22	Malmö - Varbergs BoIS	3:0
24.10.21	Varbergs BoIS - Malmö	1:1
09.05.21	Malmö - Varbergs BoIS	3:2
29.11.20	Varbergs BoIS - Malmö	3:2
21.06.20	Malmö - Varbergs BoIS	2:2
Club Friendly
11.02.20	Malmö - Varbergs BoIS	1:3

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