Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gradski Park (Skopje)

Referee: Farrugia P. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Serbia	Arena Premium 1


	Vardar		Riga

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.05
	3.05	3.35	2.12	Watch
	3.22	3.6	2.09
	3.27	3.46	2.13	Watch
	3	3.4	2.06
	3.06	3.73	2.18	Watch
	3.05	3.55	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (1.83)	3.5 ↓ (3.68)	2.1 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vardar
29.9%

Draw
26.3%

Riga
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

24.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vardar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vardar's form might have worsened.

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	20.8%	54.2%

Vardar - Riga Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Vardar will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Riga will win (votes: 13 - 54.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Riga: 34.3% – 74.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Riga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Taleski D. (G) 21. Jankulov G. 5. Najdovski F. 4. Matic M. 3. Manevski M. 8. Nikolov B. 6. Babunski D. 32. Castaneda D. 71. Miguel Pires 7. Rodrigues G. 9. Omeragic A. (C)	91. Orols F. (G) 13. Jurkovskis R. 21. Musah B. 34. Cernomordijs A. (C) 17. Salazar A. 8. Iago Siqueira 40. Ankrah A. 18. Oulad M'Hand S. 4. Galo O. 19. Badamosi M. 7. Aouani R.
Substitutes
88. Bosancic N. 27. Cvetkovski F. 49. Danev D. 1. Dikovski D. (G) 23. Duranski F. 31. Markovski I. 18. Mishkovski N. 34. Puleio I. 17. Spahiu E. 22. Todorovski D. 10. Zakaric G.	3. Abner 99. Caio Ferreira 22. Diop M. 44. Kazainis M. (G) 31. Papadoudis A. (G) 33. Paulo Eduardo 11. Pena B. 10. Reginaldo Ramires 25. Taiwo A. 23. Tonisevs M. 5. Wassom K.
Coaches
Fabbiani C.	Gula A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', Matic M. 🟨,
20', Musah B. 🟨,
21', Galo O. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Castaneda D. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Galo O. ⚽, Jurkovskis R. (A),
39', 1 - 2, Iago Siqueira ⚽, Galo O. (A),
43', Jurkovskis R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Oulad M'Hand S. 🟨,
57', Oulad M'Hand S. ↓, Caio Ferreira ↑,
59', Nikolov B. ↓, Bosancic N. ↑,
59', Miguel Pires ↓, Zakaric G. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Rodrigues G. ⚽, Zakaric G. (A),
67', Aouani R. ↓, Paulo Eduardo ↑,
67', Badamosi M. ↓, Reginaldo Ramires ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Reginaldo Ramires ⚽, Salazar A. (A),
87', Galo O. ↓, Wassom K. ↑,
90+1', Najdovski F. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Riga is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Riga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Riga will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Riga FC: 0.15%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Vardar
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Vardar	2:3 AET ✺
07.07.26	Vardar - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
North Macedonian 1 MFL
23.05.26	Vardar - Shkendija Tetovo	3:0 ✺
15.05.26	Struga - Vardar	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Vardar - Sileks	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWWW
- Riga FC
Latvian Virsliga
18.07.26	Riga - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	Riga - Ararat-Armenia	3:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
10.07.26	Leevon PPK - Riga	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.07.26	Ararat-Armenia - Riga	2:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
03.07.26	Riga - Jelgava	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW

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