Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 22Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday
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Varea |
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Yagüe |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.29 |
4.85 |
7.7 |
|
 |
1.39 |
4.5 |
6.87 |
|
 |
1.31 |
5.12 |
7.9 |
 Watch |
 |
1.36 |
4.33 |
6.5 |
|
 |
1.44 |
4.75 |
6.07 |
|
 |
1.35 |
4.75 |
6.66 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.36 ↓
(1.43) |
4.72 ↑
(4.37) |
6.95 ↑
(5.98) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Varea
67.4% | Draw
19.4% | Yagüe
13.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Varea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)Yagüe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varea than the current prediction. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yagüe than the current prediction. (+1.5%)Varea - Yagüe Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 38', 1 - 0, Ubis E. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 56', 🟥,
- 84', 1 - 1, ⚽,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 8).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varea won 4.Varea is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).In recent matches, Yagüe has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Varea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Varea is the obvious favorite.We predict that Varea will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Varea won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 27:11. (average 2.5:1).Including home matches between the teams, Varea won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 3.2:1).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 8 | Varea | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
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| 10 | Yague | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 6 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16 | | | 05.10.25 | Yagüe - Varea | 1:3 | | 25.01.25 | Yagüe - Varea | 0:1 | | 11.02.23 | Yagüe - Varea | 2:3 | | 09.10.22 | Varea - Yagüe | 3:2 | | 09.04.22 | Yagüe - Varea | 2:1 | | 28.11.21 | Varea - Yagüe | 2:2 | | 08.03.20 | Varea - Yagüe | 6:0 |
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