Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Varese		Imperia

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.25	3.4
	1.92	3.3	3.45
	2.01	3.27	3.45	Watch
	1.95	3	3.5
	1.92	3.25	3.66
	2.05	3.14	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.92)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	3.48 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varese
45.9%

Draw
28.2%

Imperia
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

27.2%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

25.8%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Imperia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varese than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Imperia than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Varese - Imperia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Costantini N. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Tentoni T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group A (Play Offs: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varese won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Varese will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Varese won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Varese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Imperia - the odds 3.45 are the expected chance of winning is 26.03%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varese FC
Italian Serie D - Group A
21.12.25	Varese - Lavagnese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Saluzzo - Varese	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Derthona - Varese	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Varese - Celle Varazze	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Valenzana Mado - Varese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTWTW
- ASD Imperia
Italian Serie D - Group A
21.12.25	Celle Varazze - Imperia	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Imperia - Derthona	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Unione Sanremo - Imperia	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Imperia - NovaRomentin	3:0 ✺
26.11.25	Imperia - Cairese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
06.09.25	Imperia - Varese	1:3
19.01.25	Imperia - Varese	1:1
22.09.24	Varese - Imperia	4:3
27.02.22	Varese - Imperia	2:0
20.10.21	Imperia - Varese	2:1
24.02.21	Varese - Imperia	0:1
15.11.20	Imperia - Varese	2:0

Varese - Imperia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide