Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Derthona		Varese

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.52
	2.46	3.39	2.56	Watch
	2.47	3.22	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.5)	3.29 ↓ (3.32)	2.53 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derthona
36.8%

Draw
27.5%

Varese
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

27.5%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

26.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derthona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Varese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derthona than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varese than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Derthona - Varese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Malinverno A. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Benedetti S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+5', 1 - 2, Barzotti M. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 and 6)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derthona won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Derthona won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Derthona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derthona FBC
Italian Serie D - Group A
30.11.25	Derthona - Unione Sanremo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Celle Varazze - Derthona	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Derthona - NovaRomentin	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Asti - Derthona	2:3 ✺
02.11.25	Derthona - Cairese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 LWWWL
- Varese FC
Italian Serie D - Group A
30.11.25	Varese - Celle Varazze	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Valenzana Mado - Varese	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Varese - Unione Sanremo	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Gozzano - Varese	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Varese - Asti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
02.03.25	Derthona - Varese	1:0
27.10.24	Varese - Derthona	2:0
26.11.23	Varese - Derthona	3:0
27.03.22	Varese - Derthona	0:1
07.11.21	Derthona - Varese	1:0
20.06.21	Varese - Derthona	1:2
07.02.21	Derthona - Varese	0:1

Derthona - Varese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide