Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 9

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.15	3.3
	2.05	3.32	3.81
	2.04	3.29	3.62	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	2.08	3.43	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.27)	3.24 ↑ (2.9)	3.5 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
45.2%

Draw
28.5%

Mafra
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

31.2%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

30.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varzim's performance.

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Varzim - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 11. Benchi D. 19. Chamito 4. Chicao 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 7. Gomes A. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 32. Rego R. 31. Talocha	33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 5. Beni D. 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 20. Maiga Y. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 46. Sambu B.
Substitutes
27. Boloto 49. Costa P. (G) 20. Derick 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M. 17. Sequeira D.	8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 4. Queta M. 13. Raposo C. 96. So S. 52. Xico

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', 🟨,
38', 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', 🟨,
68', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Varzim may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Varzim will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Varzim won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Varzim won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Varzim - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.98%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Varzim - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
03.04.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.22	Varzim - Mafra	2:0
08.01.22	Mafra - Varzim	0:0
20.03.21	Varzim - Mafra	2:0
01.11.20	Mafra - Varzim	3:1
01.03.20	Varzim - Mafra	2:1
22.09.19	Mafra - Varzim	1:1

Varzim - Mafra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide