Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	3.6
	1.94	3.47	4.01
	1.91	3.5	3.84	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	1.87	3.3	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.92)	3.34 ↑ (3.26)	3.77 (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
48.2%

Draw
27.5%

Varzim
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

28.1%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

27.4%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Belenenses - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 66. Cesinha 11. Duda 17. Horta Leitao D. 21. Morgado T. (C) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 9. Souza E.	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 4. Chicao 71. Filipe L. 77. Franca F. 7. Gomes A. 35. Gunjo J. 10. Joaozinho 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 31. Talocha 44. Vila Cova M.
Substitutes
23. Bruninho 7. Eduardo W. 89. Gastao J. 15. Lucas J. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	27. Boloto 21. Chamito 49. Costa P. (G) 20. Derick 14. Graca H. 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M. 32. Rego R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Horta Leitao D. ⚽, Morgado T. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Oliveira R. ⚽,
31', Chicao 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Duda ⚽, Afonso A. (A),
45+1', Afonso A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Chicao ↓, Rego R. ↑,
54', Gomes A. ↓, Chamito ↑,
67', 2 - 2, Talocha ⚽,
69', Duda ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
69', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
75', Bandarra M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
76', Franca F. 🟨,
79', Franca F. ↓, Graca H. ↑,
79', Gunjo J. ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
84', Afonso A. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
84', Souza E. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
85', Filipe L. ↓, Pimenta G. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 2, Gastao J. ⚽, Sambu M. (A),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Belenenses could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Including home match between the teams, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Varzim - the odds 3.77 are the expected chance of winning is 24.26%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWTT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Varzim - Belenenses	0:0
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0

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