Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 8

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.72	3.25
	2.33	2.91	3.62
	2.49	2.77	3.26	Watch
	2.3	2.63	3.3
	2.32	2.99	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.55)	2.8 ↓ (2.92)	3.35 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Amarante
39.4%

Draw
33%

Varzim
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

31.3%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

29.8%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Varzim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Amarante - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 22. Vivas S. 80. Ventura 6. Almeida F. 8. Zangre A. 28. Pedro R. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 10. Rodrigues D. 7. Conceicao M.	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 3. Nuno P. 20. Derick 32. Rego R. 71. Filipe L. 27. Boloto 8. Oliveira R. (C) 31. Talocha 10. Joaozinho 99. Pedro Clemente 77. Franca F.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 13. Flores R. (G) 5. Innusah H. 58. Meireles A. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 71. Silva R.	11. Benchi D. 19. Chamito 4. Chicao 49. Costa P. (G) 7. Gomes A. 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Ventura ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Boloto ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
52', Pedro Clemente ↓, Chamito ↑,
62', Conceicao M. ↓, Meireles A. ↑,
67', Vivas S. 🟨,
69', Franca F. ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
70', Gunjo J. 🟨,
72', Almeida F. 🟨,
72', Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,
72', Rodrigues D. ↓, Arome ↑,
74', Derick 🟨,
76', Meireles A. 🟨,
77', Derick ↓, Graca H. ↑,
82', Duarte M. 🟨,
88', Almeida F. ↓, Innusah H. ↑,
88', Zangre A. ↓, Silva R. ↑,
90+5', Ribeiro O. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: ) and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 2.

Amarante has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Varzim's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Varzim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
29.03.26	Amarante - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	União de Santarém - Amarante	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 TWWWW
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
21.03.26	Varzim - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1
09.11.25	Varzim - Amarante	0:0
10.08.25	Amarante - Varzim	0:1
06.04.25	Amarante - Varzim	2:1
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2
15.12.24	Amarante - Varzim	0:1
31.08.24	Varzim - Amarante	1:3

Upcoming Matches