Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		União de Santarém

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.2	3.6
	1.82	3.25	3.95
	1.89	3.24	4.63
	1.82	3.42	4.36	Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.9
	1.9	3.47	3.94
	1.95	3.15	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.25)	3.26 ↑ (2.93)	4.04 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
49.1%

Draw
28.2%

União de Santarém
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

31.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

29.9%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varzim's performance.

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and União de Santarém might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varzim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Varzim - União de Santarém Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 19. Chamito 71. Filipe L. 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 10. Joaozinho 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. (C) 32. Rego R. 31. Talocha 44. Vila Cova M.	22. Hidalgo N. (G) 17. Aguas G. 84. Ayiah E. 13. Bura 11. Goncalves E. F. 16. Grilo M. (C) 3. Joao Ricardo 6. Nanco I. 14. Simoes J. 20. Ventura B. 28. Vinhas D.
Substitutes
11. Benchi D. 27. Boloto 49. Costa P. (G) 20. Derick 7. Gomes A. 99. Pedro Clemente 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rebelo M. 17. Sequeira D.	90. Koume S. 10. Madeira T. 24. Medalli N. 58. Monteiro D. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 4. Pereira P. 5. Rodeia M. 7. Teixeira G. 29. Teixeira R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Rego R. 🟨,
44', Filipe L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vila Cova M. ↓, Derick ↑,
53', Ventura B. 🟨,
54', Oliveira R. 🟨,
61', Graca H. ↓, Boloto ↑,
61', Gunjo J. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
66', Goncalves E. F. 🟨,
66', Ayiah E. ↓, Teixeira G. ↑,
71', Ventura B. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,
80', Goncalves E. F. 🟨,
80', Rego R. ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
84', Oliveira R. ↓, Benchi D. ↑,
90+2', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
90+4', Nanco I. 🟨,
90+4', Nanco I. ↓, Koume S. ↑,
90+7', Vinhas D. 🟨,
90+8', Simoes J. 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 0, Joaozinho (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 5).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Recently, Santarém has had a series of home games.

In this match, Varzim is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Varzim - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.65%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL
- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	União de Santarém - Amarante	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	União de Santarém - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL

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