Match Info

Regionalliga West - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Velbert		Köln II

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.75	2
	3.63	3.76	1.95
	3.51	3.95	1.82
	3.08	3.64	1.99
	3	3.6	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.4)	3.74 ↑ (3.6)	1.94 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Velbert
28.1%

Draw
24.5%

Köln II
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

23.9%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Velbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Velbert's form might have worsened.

Köln II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln II's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Velbert than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Velbert, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln II than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln II, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Velbert - Köln II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Duschke T. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Harchaoui F. ⚽,
32', 2 - 1, Buyukarslan O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
73', 2 - 2, Ajani M. ⚽,
84', 2 - 3, Adamyan S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+5', 3 - 3, Machtemes M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Velbert won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Velbert may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Köln II will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Velbert won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 0.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Velbert won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.8:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Koln II	10	4	2	4	19:18	1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Köln II - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSVg Velbert
German Regionalliga West
22.04.26	Velbert - Borussia Dortmund II	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Schalke 04 II - Velbert	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Rödinghausen - Velbert	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bocholt - Velbert	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Velbert - Fortuna Köln	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWTLL
- 1. Köln II
German Regionalliga West
17.04.26	Köln II - Fortuna Köln	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Bonner - Köln II	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Köln II - Fortuna Düsseldorf II	0:2 ✺
27.03.26	Siegen - Köln II	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Gütersloh - Köln II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga West
02.11.25	Köln II - Velbert	4:1
20.04.24	Köln II - Velbert	0:3
28.10.23	Velbert - Köln II	1:5
Club Friendly
10.07.19	Velbert - Köln II	3:3
26.01.19	Köln II - Velbert	3:1
German Regionalliga West
12.12.15	Köln II - Velbert	0:0
02.08.15	Velbert - Köln II	0:0

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