Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)


	Venados		Correcaminos UAT

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.25	Watch
	1.72	3.96	4.65
	1.68	4.09	4.44	Watch
	1.5	4	5
	1.73	4.09	4.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.67)	4.02 ↓ (4.19)	4.49 ↑ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
56.1%

Draw
23.1%

Correcaminos UAT
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

22.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

21.4%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Venados - Correcaminos UAT Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Ramirez S. (G) 7. Calero J. 20. Cruz J. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 4. Grijalva A. 5. Lanchi 29. Lora S. 17. Martinez J. 15. Navarrete D. 11. Tejeda D. 8. Torres D.	24. Resendez E. (G) 19. Catalan A. 22. Di Pippa A. 12. Gomez Del Rosal N. 13. Moreno G. (C) 2. Ortega W. 4. Pinuelas J. 32. Sandoval T. 14. Sosa C. 25. Torres E. 11. Uribe H.
Substitutes
32. Aguilar M. 19. Ballesteros O. 143. Benitez S. 28. Delgado A. (G) 9. Derbez L. 23. Galvan P. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 34. Saucedo S. 30. Torres Sauri M.	104. Arce R. 7. Cisneros D. 9. Delgadillo Y. 20. Estopier J. 23. Galindo J. 6. Martinez J. 33. Mina D. 21. Prieto R. 3. Rubio R. 108. Villalba J. (G)
Coaches
Garcia I. C.	Diaz G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Pinuelas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Gomez Del Rosal N. ⚽, Uribe H. (A),
55', Ramirez S. 🟥,
60', Navarrete D. ↓, Delgado A. ↑,
61', Pinuelas J. ↓, Cisneros D. ↑,
72', Sosa C. ↓, Estopier J. ↑,
72', Uribe H. ↓, Prieto R. ↑,
73', Martinez J. ↓, Benitez S. ↑,
74', Cisneros D. 🟨,
79', Cruz J. ↓, Ballesteros O. ↑,
79', Tejeda D. ↓, Torres Sauri M. ↑,
85', Prieto R. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
85', Moreno G. ↓, Arce R. ↑,
90+5', Calero J. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 3.

Venados is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Correcaminos's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Venados is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Venados won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 32:36. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Venados won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 1.9:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Venados	11	6	1	4	26:21	5	19
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19:18	1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Venados - Cancún	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:3 ✺
30.01.26	Atlético La Paz - Venados	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWTL
- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.02.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Correcaminos UAT - Atlante	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tlaxcala	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Correcaminos UAT	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6
20.03.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	1:1
04.10.24	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	5:1
23.03.24	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	2:1
22.08.23	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	4:3
10.01.23	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	1:1
26.06.22	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	1:3

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