Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)


	Correcaminos UAT		Venados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.82	3.5	2.2
	2.91	3.71	2.29
	5.57	4.64	1.48	Watch
	2.85	3.6	2.21	Watch
	2.55	3.5	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.52)	3.79 ↑ (3.55)	2.12 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Correcaminos UAT
28.9%

Draw
25.5%

Venados
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

25.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

25.1%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Correcaminos UAT's form might have worsened.

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Venados's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Correcaminos UAT, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Venados, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Correcaminos UAT - Venados Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Correcaminos (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Correcaminos (2.15) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Correcaminos (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Castellanos R. (G) 104. Arce R. 7. Cisneros D. (C) 11. Espinosa Y. 8. Garcia J. 10. Hernandez E. 28. Lopez M. 6. Martinez J. 13. Moreno G. 3. Pereyra J. 34. Velazquez H.	28. Delgado A. (G) 18. Amador K. 7. Calero J. 19. Catalan A. 8. Dominguez A. 23. Galvan P. 10. Guzman W. 11. Madrid W. 15. Navarrete D. 25. Trejo Castro M. A. 33. Vidrio N. (C)
Substitutes
86. Barron D. 5. Capeluto J. 35. Chavez L. (G) 20. Estopier J. 17. Garcia J. 27. Martinez J. 2. Pineda I. 85. Rubli G. 19. Trevino S. 30. Villareal A.	143. Benitez S. 16. Espinosa E. 4. Grijalva A. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 5. Miranda J. 1. Reyes D. (G) 22. Sancho J. 30. Torres Sauri M.
Coaches
Eugui H.	Garcia I. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Calero J. (Pen),
14', 1 - 1, Velazquez H. ⚽,
32', Catalan A. 🟨,
45', Arce R. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 2, Calero J. ⚽, Madrid W. (A),
45+4', 1 - 3, Calero J. ⚽, Catalan A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Espinosa Y. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
49', 1 - 4, Guzman W. ⚽, Madrid W. (A),
56', Cisneros D. 🟨,
63', 2 - 4, Martinez J. ⚽, Garcia J. (A),
64', Galvan P. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
67', Hernandez E. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
68', Arce R. ↓, Estopier J. ↑,
69', 2 - 5, Madrid W. ⚽, Calero J. (A),
77', Guzman W. ↓, Espinosa E. ↑,
77', Navarrete D. ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,
77', Velazquez H. ↓, Barron D. ↑,
81', Dominguez A. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
81', Calero J. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
82', 2 - 6, Sancho J. ⚽,
85', 3 - 6, Martinez J. (Pen),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 1.

Correcaminos has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Venados's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:26. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Correcaminos won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:4 ✺
24.08.25	Tlaxcala - Correcaminos UAT	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLLLW
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.09.25	Venados - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:3 ✺
13.09.25	Cancún - Venados	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	4:5 ✺
22.08.25	Venados - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.03.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	1:1
04.10.24	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	5:1
23.03.24	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	2:1
22.08.23	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	4:3
10.01.23	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	1:1
26.06.22	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	1:3
01.02.22	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	2:2

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