Match Info

GERMANY: REGIONALLIGA SUDWEST - ROUND 18

Date: 18 November 2023, Saturday


	VfR Aalen		Homburg

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	1.88
	3.4	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.49	3.7	2.02
	3.49	3.59	2.03
	3.2	3.7	1.85
	3.46	3.72	1.92
	3.2	3.7	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.28)	3.68 ↓ (3.82)	1.94 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VfR Aalen
27.5%

Draw
25.1%

Homburg
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

24.3%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

23.8%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VfR Aalen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Homburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VfR Aalen than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

VfR Aalen - Homburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 10 and 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aalen won 2.

Aalen is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Homburg is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Homburg will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Aalen won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Aalen won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfR Aalen
German Regionalliga Sudwest
11.11.23	VfR Aalen - Freiberg	2:1 ✺
05.11.23	Astoria Walldorf - VfR Aalen	2:1 ✺
28.10.23	VfR Aalen - VfB Stuttgart II	2:2 ✺
21.10.23	FSV Frankfurt - VfR Aalen	3:0 ✺
14.10.23	VfR Aalen - Bahlinger	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLL
- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
12.11.23	Stuttgarter Kickers - Homburg	2:2 ✺
04.11.23	Homburg - TSV Steinbach Haiger	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
31.10.23	Homburg - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
German Regionalliga Sudwest
28.10.23	Mainz II - Homburg	2:4 ✺
21.10.23	Homburg - Hessen Kassel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
06.08.23	Homburg - VfR Aalen	1:1
04.03.23	VfR Aalen - Homburg	1:3
28.08.22	Homburg - VfR Aalen	2:0
02.04.22	VfR Aalen - Homburg	4:0
09.10.21	Homburg - VfR Aalen	0:1
17.04.21	VfR Aalen - Homburg	1:1
02.03.20	VfR Aalen - Homburg	1:3

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