Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Vila Mea (Vila Mea)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Como TV
Portugal	Canal 11


	Vila Meã		Leiria

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.75
	4.15	3.2	1.88
	4.91	3.35	1.71
	4.52	3.25	1.79	Watch
	4.5	3.4	1.67
	4.77	3.38	1.78	Watch
	5.33	3.25	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.61 ↑ (4.01)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	1.76 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Meã
20%

Draw
27.6%

Leiria
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

26.5%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

24.4%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Meã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Meã than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vila Meã, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leiria, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Vila Meã - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vila Meã will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Meã (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Santos D. (G) 72. Morais M. 3. Amadeu 4. Meneses P. (C) 26. Quinones C. 6. Syzyi S. 21. Madureira J. 8. Martins D. 88. Joy 9. Carvalho J. O. 79. Lopes J.	1. Carrasco S. (G) 52. Sylla H. 16. Ze Pedro 4. Velazquez S. 15. Silva J. 21. Pires M. 41. Daniel Borges 11. Jair da Silva 9. Munoz J. (C) 10. van der Gaag J. 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
19. Correia A. 39. Djousse D. 10. Firmino D. 11. Magalhaes J. 48. Miranda F. (G) 20. Queiros D. 7. Rafael J. 90. Rebelo L. 17. Vitor J.	3. Baro M. 19. Fernandez P. 20. Gomes B. 8. Kouassi E. 68. Maga 99. Odehnal J. (G) 72. Oliveira V. 6. Rodriguez G. 78. Santos J.
Coaches
Campos P.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Syzyi S. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Munoz J. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Pires M. 🟨,
45+1', Velazquez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jair da Silva ↓, Santos J. ↑,
61', Pires M. ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
61', Michel D. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
68', Syzyi S. ↓, Firmino D. ↑,
68', Madureira J. ↓, Rafael J. ↑,
70', van der Gaag J. ↓, Maga ↑,
74', Carrasco S. 🟨,
78', Morais M. ↓, Djousse D. ↑,
84', Carvalho J. O. ↓, Vitor J. ↑,
86', Rafael J. 🟨,
89', Sylla H. 🟨,
90+2', Velazquez S. ↓, Kouassi E. ↑,
90+3', Velazquez S. 🟨,

Preview

Vila Meã is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leiria has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leiria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leiria is a strong favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Vila Meã
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
07.12.25	Vila Meã - Gouveia	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Rebordosa - Vila Meã	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Vila Meã - Leixões	2:1 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
09.11.25	Vila Meã - União Lamas	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Aparecida - Vila Meã	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WTWWL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Leiria - Felgueiras	2:3 ✺
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Leiria - Benfica B	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	1 Dezembro - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTWT

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