Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 13

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Lima R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Penafiel		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.25	1.9	Watch
	3.65	3.35	1.95
	3.89	3.55	1.99
	3.8	3.54	1.93	Watch
	3.5	3.25	1.95
	3.64	3.36	2.02	Watch
	4	3.33	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (2.97)	3.38 ↓ (3.42)	1.95 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
24.8%

Draw
27.5%

Leiria
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

27.3%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

26.1%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penafiel's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penafiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Penafiel - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 27. Negrao G. 4. Miguel J. (C) 33. Moreira C. 2. lano Imbene 36. Dani Molina 8. Reko 88. Alves R. 20. Santos A. 19. Alcaina R. 37. Davo	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 6. Rodriguez G. 16. Ze Pedro 15. Silva J. 18. Lottin A. 41. Daniel Borges 10. van der Gaag J. 17. Lucho Vega 9. Munoz J. (C) 19. Fernandez P.
Substitutes
75. Alloh T. 3. Gustavo Fernandes 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 5. Sanchez J. 95. Sery J. 9. Suker H. 22. Xico 34. Ze Leite	25. Amado D. 3. Baro M. 20. Gomes B. 11. Jair da Silva 86. Michel D. 99. Odehnal J. (G) 21. Pires M. 52. Sylla H. 4. Velazquez S.
Coaches
Aira J.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Daniel Borges 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucho Vega ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
46', Silva J. ↓, Baro M. ↑,
50', Reko 🟨,
65', Alcaina R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
76', van der Gaag J. ↓, Michel D. ↑,
79', Alves R. ↓, Ze Leite ↑,
79', Davo ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
80', Dani Molina 🟨,
88', Daniel Borges ↓, Pires M. ↑,
88', Maga ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
89', Santos A. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Sery J. ⚽,
90+5', Ze Leite 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5).

Penafiel has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leiria is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Penafiel has had a series of away games.

Leiria could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
29.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Penafiel - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Vizela - Penafiel	1:3 ✺
26.10.25	Farense - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LLTWT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
30.11.25	Leiria - Benfica B	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	1 Dezembro - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Leiria - Chaves	2:1 ✺
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.03.25	Leiria - Penafiel	1:0
06.10.24	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0
25.04.24	Leiria - Penafiel	0:2
16.12.23	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0

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