Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 13

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Do Monte Forca (Vila Real)


	Vila Real		Leça

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.3
	2.92	3.14	2.25
	2.83	3.18	2.35	Watch
	2.97	2.98	2.33
	3.6	3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.6)	3.06 ↑ (3)	2.25 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Real
29.9%

Draw
29.7%

Leça
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

30%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

29.5%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Real has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Leça has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Real than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vila Real that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leça than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leça could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vila Real - Leça Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 3).

Vila Real has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leça is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vila Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Leça will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vila Real won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vila Real won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Vila Real
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
09.11.25	Resende - Vila Real	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Vila Real - Salgueiros 08	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Beira-Mar - Vila Real	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Vila Real - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.10.25	Vila Real - Anadia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLT
- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
09.11.25	Salgueiros 08 - Leça	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Leça - Beira-Mar	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Anadia - Leça	1:3 ✺
05.10.25	Leça - Gouveia	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	União Lamas - Leça	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.04.21	Vila Real - Leça	2:2
17.02.21	Leça - Vila Real	2:0
12.01.20	Leça - Vila Real	3:0

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