Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Do Monte Forca (Vila Real)


	Vila Real		Tondela

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.7	1.5
	5.41	3.72	1.53
	13.68	5.98	1.18	Watch
	6.84	4.3	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.86 ↑ (5.54)	4.43 ↑ (3.77)	1.41 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Real
12%

Draw
21.3%

Tondela
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

23.8%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

22.5%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Real has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tondela's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Real than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vila Real, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tondela, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vila Real - Tondela Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Monteiro J. (G) 18. Andre Azevedo 5. Boas V. 3. Cardoso G. 70. Chiquinho 2. Lica G. 21. Lote 8. Miguelito (C) 4. Neto 15. Njoh S. 10. Teixeira G.	30. Canizares L. (G) 5. Afonso J. (C) 97. Cicero 10. Hodge J. 14. Huarte X. 48. Manso T. 4. Marques C. 7. Pedro Maranhao 11. Rodriguez Y. 21. Vita R. 67. Yarlen
Substitutes
20. Armando 9. Joel Isaac 11. Mateus C. 16. Mika 51. Mini 26. Silva V. 17. Sousa J. 7. Telinhos G. 32. Titinho (G)	2. Bebeto 17. Cavaleiro I. 19. Rodrigues A. 16. Rony Lopes 29. Siebatcheu J. 15. Sithole S. 1. Souza G. (G) 3. Tavares D. 8. Tavares H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Rodriguez Y. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Chiquinho (Pen),
44', Boas V. ↓, Mateus C. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 2, Afonso J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
55', 1 - 3, Yarlen ⚽,
56', 1 - 4, Pedro Maranhao ⚽,
65', 🟨,
65', 🟨,
84', 1 - 5, ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Vila Real is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Tondela has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vila Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tondela has had a series of away games.

In this match, Tondela is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Vila Real
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.10.25	Vila Real - Anadia	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Gouveia - Vila Real	0:5 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Machico - Vila Real	0:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Vila Real - União Lamas	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Vila Real - Camacha	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWWLW
- CD Tondela
Club Friendly
08.10.25	Ferrol - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Rio Ave - Tondela	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TLWTL

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