Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 6

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)


	Villarreal B		Atlético Madrid B

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.7	2.5
	2.65	2.95	2.45
	2.82	2.88	2.58
	2.98	2.96	2.56
	6.04	3.86	1.54	Watch
	2.82	2.93	2.55
	2.75	2.8	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.34)	3.01 ↑ (2.77)	2.38 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal B
28.9%

Draw
31.4%

Atlético Madrid B
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

32.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

33.7%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villarreal B's form might have worsened.

Atlético Madrid B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Madrid B's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villarreal B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid B than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Madrid B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Villarreal B - Atlético Madrid B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Madrid B (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atlético Madrid B (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Madrid B (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gomez R. (G) 2. Budesca D. 23. Valou J. 6. Spatz L. M. 3. Ortiz E. 28. Macia C. 8. Diatta A. 7. Moreno V. 22. Viveros F. 10. Quintero L. 9. Rubio A.	13. Esquivel S. (G) 4. Bonar J. 15. Puric A. 16. Kostis I. 5. Martinez D. 6. Serrano J. 18. Bellotti M. 7. Luque I. 26. Monserrate J. 23. Ortiz A. 9. Janneh O.
Substitutes
19. Barry M. 33. Bonafe C. 20. Curro 30. Garcia A. 5. Gil F. 25. Kinareykin Y. (G) 11. Lopez H. 16. Pascual P. 21. Rodriguez I. 4. Sierra I. 15. Tidiane Thiam C.	20. Barboza M. 8. Castillo J. 19. Corral A. 1. de Luis M. (G) 22. Gimenez C. 11. Koke 14. Morcillo J. 17. Rajado J. 12. Spina G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, Kostis I. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Bonar J. ⚽,
21', 0 - 3, Ortiz A. ⚽,
31', 1 - 3, Rubio A. ⚽,
45+1', Valou J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Ortiz E. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
57', Moreno V. ↓, Lopez H. ↑,
63', Kostis I. ↓, Barboza M. ↑,
63', Bellotti M. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
67', Castillo J. 🟨,
72', Rubio A. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
73', Janneh O. ↓, Sits D. ↑,
80', Quintero L. ↓, Tidiane Thiam C. ↑,
81', Tidiane Thiam C. 🟨,
81', Macia C. ↓, Barry M. ↑,
82', Diatta A. 🟨,
84', Monserrate J. ↓, Koke ↑,
84', Luque I. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
89', Ortiz A. 🟨,
89', Budesca D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Villarreal B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Villarreal B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Villarreal B - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 38.95%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Madrid B - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.1%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.09.25	Sabadell - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Villarreal B - CE Europa	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Eldense - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTTLW
- Atlético Madrid B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Ibiza	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Betis B - Atlético Madrid B	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Cartagena - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
01.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.02.25	Atlético Madrid B - Villarreal B	1:0
24.11.24	Villarreal B - Atlético Madrid B	3:2

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